IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Incomplete Markets, Borrowing Constraints, and the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium

  • Sylvain Leduc

A large body of literature documents that returns from currency speculation are highly volatile and possess a predictable component, which is itself highly volatile and serially correlated. Explaining the returns from currency speculation through the presence of a risk premium has proven difficult, however. In particular, models with complete markets and time-separable preferences generate risk premia that are nearly constant. This paper solves a model consisting of two monetary economies with incomplete markets, in which agents are subject to borrowing constraints. The paper investigates if such a framework is able to account for the volatility and the size of the foreign exchange risk premium. Under very restrictive borrowing constraints, the model succeeds in increasing substantially the volatility of the risk premium and generates predictable excess returns, although not sufficiently large to match the data. It thus appears unlikely that excess returns from currency speculation can be uniquely explanined by a time-varying risk premium in an incomplete-markets economy.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/Working-Papers/98-06-050.ps
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Santa Fe Institute in its series Research in Economics with number 98-06-050e.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jun 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wop:safire:98-06-050e
Contact details of provider: Postal:
1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501

Web page: http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/working-papers.html

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Cole, Harold, 1988. "Financial Structure and International Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(2), pages 237-59, May.
  2. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
  3. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  5. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  6. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  7. David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Chris I. Telmer, 1992. "Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Working Papers 92-18b, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Lucas, Deborah J., 1994. "Asset pricing with undiversifiable income risk and short sales constraints: Deepening the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 325-341, December.
  9. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  10. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September.
  11. Telmer, Chris I, 1993. " Asset-Pricing Puzzles and Incomplete Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1803-32, December.
  12. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April.
  13. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 1999. "Quantitative asset pricing implications of endogenous solvency constraints," Working Papers 99-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  14. Marianne Baxter & Mario J. Crucini, 1994. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," NBER Working Papers 4975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2001. "The benefits of dollarization when stabilization policy lacks credibility and financial markets are imperfect," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 440-481.
  16. Anne C. Sibert, 1987. "The risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Research Working Paper 87-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  17. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-40, April.
  18. Tiff Macklem, R., 1991. "Forward exchange rates and risk premiums in artificial economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 365-391, September.
  19. Bekaert, G.R.J. & Hodrick, R. & Marshall, D., 1997. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Discussion Paper 1997-07, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  20. Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2000. "International Business Cycles with Endogenous Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 7870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. S Rao Aiyagari & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Asset Returns with transaction costs and uninsured individual risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 648, David K. Levine.
  22. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1993. "Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving," Working Papers 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  23. Kollmann, Robert, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 945-961, May.
  24. Bekaert, Geert, 1994. "Exchange rate volatility and deviations from unbiasedness in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 29-52, February.
  25. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  26. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  27. Aiyagari, S. Rao & Gertler, Mark, 1990. "Asset Returns With Transactions Costs And Uninsured Individual Risk: A Stage Iii Exercise," Working Papers 90-43, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  28. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March.
  29. Charles Engel, 1990. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Research Working Paper 90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  30. Krusell, Per & Smith, Anthony A., 1997. "Income And Wealth Heterogeneity, Portfolio Choice, And Equilibrium Asset Returns," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 387-422, June.
  31. repec:fth:starer:98-25 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Harold L. Cole & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing: How Much Do Financial Markets Matter?," NBER Working Papers 3027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Krusell, P & Smith Jr, A-A, 1995. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomic," RCER Working Papers 399, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  34. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969.
  35. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1997. "Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange Rates in Sticky Price Models of International Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Aiyagari, S.R. & Gertler, M., 1998. ""Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium," Working Papers 98-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  37. repec:fth:starer:9825 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 3790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Testing for the absence of expected real profits from forward market speculation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 299-308, November.
  40. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Equity Premium and the Concentration of Aggregate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 1788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah J, 1996. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 443-87, June.
  43. Sibert, Anne, 1996. "Unconventional preferences: do they explain foreign exchange risk premia?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 149-165, February.
  44. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Aaron Tornell, 1996. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Learning," NBER Working Papers 5530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1991. "Capital Controls and the Gains from Trade in a Business Cycle Model of a Small Open Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 480-505, September.
  46. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
  47. Kenneth A. Froot, 1990. "Short Rates and Expected Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris Telmer & Amir Yaron, . "Persistent Idiosyncratic Shocks and Incomplete Markets," GSIA Working Papers 24, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  49. Hakkio, Craig S & Sibert, Anne, 1995. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Is It Real?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 301-17, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:safire:98-06-050e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.