Liquidity in the Forward Exchange Market
There are a number of major anomalies that arise from forward foreign exchange rates. Though the level of the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate, the forward premium is poor predictor of future spot rate changes; speculative profits are so volatile that implausibly large degrees of risk aversion are required to explain them and finally, the forward premium is 'excessively' autoregressive. These conclusions emerge from, inter alia, Macklem (1991), Engel (1992) and Backus, Gregory and Telmer (1993). We construct a Lucas-Fuerst model of a two-country world. This framework provides rigorous foundations for liquidity constraints and premia. In our application, there are two insights. The first is that spot forex purchases require cash-in-advance just like goods in the standard Lucas model. However, forward contracts are not bound by this liquidity constraint. This drives a wedge between the spot and forward forex markets. The other insight is that the forward market is incomplete in that the agents that conduct the spot forex transactions in the goods market have a different information set to asset market traders. The model is then simulated using the techniques that are normally associated with the real business cycle literature. We compare its ability to overcome the 'anomalies' with the standard model. The results give rise to cautious optimism.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||1995|
|Note:||A Technical Appendix (N590795) is available which provides two fully worked out examples of solving nonlinear stochastic first order efficiency conditions using methods of Chrisiano (1990, 1991).|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Maynooth, Co. Kildare|
Web page: http://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/economics-finance-and-accounting
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1990.
"Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements,"
NBER Working Papers
3566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-185, March.
- Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991. "Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements," Working Paper 9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Charles Engel, 1995.
"The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
- David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Chris I. Telmer, 1990.
"Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency,"
792, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Backus, David K & Gregory, Allan W & Telmer, Chris I, 1993. " Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1887-1908, December.
- David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Chris I. Telmer, 1992. "Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Working Papers 92-18b, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Bekaert, Geert, 1994. "Exchange rate volatility and deviations from unbiasedness in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 29-52, February.
- Charles Engel, 1990.
"On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model,"
Research Working Paper
90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May.
- Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
- Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1997.
"Sticky price and limited participation models of money: A comparison,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1201-1249, June.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: a comparison," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky Price and Limited Participation Models of Money: A Comparison," NBER Working Papers 5804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: a comparison," Staff Report 227, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Sibert, Anne, 1996. "Unconventional preferences: do they explain foreign exchange risk premia?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 149-165, February.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
- Abul M.M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "A Fractional Cointegration Approach to Testing Mean Reversion Between Spot and Forward Exchange Rates: A Case of High Frequency Data with Low Frequency Dynamics," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7&8), pages 987-1003.
- Moore, Michael J, 1994. "Testing for Unbiasedness in Forward Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 62(0), pages 67-78, Suppl..
- Tiff Macklem, R., 1991. "Forward exchange rates and risk premiums in artificial economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 365-391, September.
- Fuerst, Timothy S., 1992. "Liquidity, loanable funds, and real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 3-24, February.
- Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993.
"The Long Memory of the Foreward Premium,"
9203, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n580795. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.