Volatility forecasting of exchange rate by quantile regression
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
- Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005.
"A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
- Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001. "A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Working Papers 2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009.
"Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
- WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence," Working papers 2005-09, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2008. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 664-679, May.
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005.
"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 248, European Central Bank.
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 10723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat M. & Yuan, Yuan & McAleer, Michael & Thompson, Mark A., 2010.
"Precious metals-exchange rate volatility transmissions and hedging strategies,"
International Review of Economics & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 633-647, October.
- Shawkat Hammoudeh & Yuan Yuan & Michael McAleer & Mark A. Thompson, 2009. "Precious Metals-Exchange Rate Volatility Transmissions and Hedging Strategies," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-684, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Hammoudeh, S.M. & Yuan, Y. & McAleer, M.J. & Thompson, M.A., 2009. "Precious Metals-Exchange Rate Volatility Transmissions and Hedging Strategies," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Shawkat Hammoudeh & Yuan Yuan & Michael McAleer & Mark A. Thompson, 2009. "Precious Metals-Exchange Rate Volatility Transmissions and Hedging Strategies," CARF F-Series CARF-F-187, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Vilasuso, Jon, 2002. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 59-64, June.
- Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
- Galati, Gabriele & Melick, William & Micu, Marian, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention and expectations: The yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 982-1011, October.
- Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Lecourt, Christelle, 2002.
"Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-144, February.
- Michel Beine & Agnes Bénassy-Quéré & Christelle Lecourt, 2002. "Central Bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10445, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
- Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
- Gabriele Galati & Patrick Higgins & Owen Humpage & William Melick, 2007.
"Option prices, exchange market intervention, and the higher moment expectations channel: a user's guide,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 225-247.
- Gabriele Galati & Patrick C. Higgins & Owen F. Humpage & William R. Melick, 2006. "Option prices, exchange market intervention, and the higher moment expectations channel: a user’s guide," Working Paper 0618, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995.
"The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, October.
- West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kenneth D. West & Dongchul Cho, 1994. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S. & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2002. "Stationarity of stable power-GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 97-107, January.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012.
"Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, April.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 8291, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005.
"The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility,"
International Review of Economics & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-39.
- Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2003. "The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Market Interventions on the Yen/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility," Kiel Working Papers 1165, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Gray, Stephen F., 1996.
"Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Gray's 1996 Regime Switching GARCH paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00080, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Lai, Ching-chong & Fang, Chung-rou & Chang, Juin-jen, 2008. "Volatility trade-offs in exchange rate target zones," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 366-379.
- Luis Servén, 2003. "ERRATUM: Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 492-492, May.
- Nicolas Péridy, 2003. "Exchange rate volatility, sectoral trade, and the aggregation bias," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(3), pages 389-418, September.
- Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004.
"CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
- Engle, Robert F & Manganelli, Simone, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt06m3d6nv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
- Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007.
"On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
- Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, 2008.
"A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility,"
International Economics and Economic Policy,
Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 389-401, December.
- Schnabl, Gunther & Hillebrand, Eric, 2006. "A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility," Working Paper Series 650, European Central Bank.
- Michel Beine & Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely & Franz C. Palm, 2007.
"Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility, its continuous and jump components,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 201-223.
- Michel Beine & Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher Neely & Franz Palm, 2007. "Central Bank intervention and exchange rate volatility: its continuous and jump components," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10413, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Michel Beine & Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely & Franz C. Palm, 2007. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility, its continuous and jump components," Working Papers 2006-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Frömmel, Michael & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2008.
"Order flows, news, and exchange rate volatility,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 994-1012, October.
- M. Frömmel & A. Mende & L. Menkhoff, 2007. "Order Flows, News, and Exchange Rate Volatility," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/474, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Hau, Harald, 2002.
"Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-630, August.
- Hau, Harald, 2000. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2356, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Saang Joon Baak & M. A. Al-Mahmood & S. Vixathep, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from East Asian countries to Japan and the USA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(8), pages 947-959.
- Scott, Elton & Tucker, Alan L., 1989. "Predicting currency return volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 839-851, December.
- G De Vita & A Abbott, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and US Exports: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 9(1), pages 69-78, March.
- Han, Young Wook, 2008. "Intraday effects of macroeconomic shocks on the US Dollar-Euro exchange rates," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 585-600, December.
- Mark Holmes, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Stationarity in Latin America and Relative Purchasing Power Parity: A Regime Switching Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 261-275, April.
- Luis Servén, 2003. "Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCS," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 212-218, February.
- Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Barkoulas, John T., 2001.
"Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Profitability,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 565-576, October.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & John T. Barkoulas, 1999. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Profitability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 422, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Feb 2000.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Al-Abri, Almukhtar S. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2009. "Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 142-161, January.
- James W. Taylor, 2005. "Generating Volatility Forecasts from Value at Risk Estimates," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 712-725, May.
- Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003.
"Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
- Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based-Stabilizations," NBER Working Papers 7862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations," RCER Working Papers 473, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Burstein, Ariel Tomas & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2001. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization," CEPR Discussion Papers 2944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gutierrez, Jose A. & Martinez, Valeria & Tse, Yiuman, 2009. "Where does return and volatility come from? The case of Asian ETFs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 671-679, October.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996.
"Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Neely, Christopher J., 1999.
"Target zones and conditional volatility: The role of realignments,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 177-192, April.
- Christopher J. Neely, 1998. "Target zones and conditional volatility: the role of realignments," Working Papers 1994-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
- Gonzaga, Gustavo M. & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 1997. "Equilibrium real exchange rate, volatility, and stabilization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 77-100, October.
- Malik, Farooq & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2007. "Shock and volatility transmission in the oil, US and Gulf equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 357-368.
- Sideris, Dimitrios A., 2008.
"Foreign exchange intervention and equilibrium real exchange rates,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 344-357, October.
- Dimitrios A. Sideris, 2007. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 56, Bank of Greece.
- Lahiri, Sajal & Mesa, Fernando, 2006. "Local content requirement on foreign direct investment under exchange rate volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 346-363.
- David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Rigobon, Roberto, 2006.
"The long-run volatility puzzle of the real exchange rate,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-124, February.
- Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "The Long-Run Volatility Puzzle of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 10751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Choudhry, Taufiq, 2005. "Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-71, March.
- Guedae Cho & Ian M. Sheldon & Steve McCorriston, 2002. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 931-942.
- Chung, Huimin & Sheu, Her-Jiun & Hsu, Shufang, 2010. "Trading platform, market volatility and pricing efficiency in the floor-traded and E-mini index futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 742-754, October.
- Leeves, Gareth, 2007. "Asymmetric volatility of stock returns during the Asian crisis: Evidence from Indonesia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 272-286.
- Raunig, Burkhard, 2008. "The predictability of exchange rate volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 220-228, February.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 369-376.
- Alessandra Pasqualina Viola & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2017. "Predicting Exchange Rate Volatility in Brazil: an approach using quantile autoregression," Working Papers Series 466, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Mauricio Lopera Castaño & Ramón Javier Mesa Callejas & Sergio Iván Restrepo Ochoa & Charle Augusto Londoño Henao, 2013. "Modelando el esquema de intervenciones del tipo de cambio para Colombia. una aplicación empírica de la técnica de regresión del cuantil bajo redes neu," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, May.
More about this item
Keywords
Exchange rate Volatility Quantile regression;Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:20:y:2011:i:4:p:591-606. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.