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Asymmetric News Effects on Volatility: Good vs. Bad News in Good vs. Bad Times

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  • Laakkonen, Helinä
  • Lanne, Markku

Abstract

We study the impact of positive and negative macroeconomic US and European news announcements in different phases of the business cycle on the highfrequency volatility of the EUR/USD exchange rate. The results suggest that in general bad news increases volatility more than good news. The news effects also depend on the state of the economy: bad news increases volatility more in good times than in bad times, while there is no difference between the volatility effects of good news in bad and good times.

Suggested Citation

  • Laakkonen, Helinä & Lanne, Markku, 2008. "Asymmetric News Effects on Volatility: Good vs. Bad News in Good vs. Bad Times," MPRA Paper 8296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8296
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    Cited by:

    1. Ho, Kin-Yip & Shi, Yanlin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2020. "News and return volatility of Chinese bank stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1095-1105.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sirimon Treepongkaruna & Robert Brooks & Stephen Gray, 2012. "Do trading hours affect volatility links in the foreign exchange market?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(1), pages 7-27, April.
    4. Walid Ben Omrane & Robert Welch & Xinyao Zhou, 2020. "The dynamic effect of macroeconomic news on the euro/US dollar exchange rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 84-103, January.
    5. Blot, Christophe & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2024. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Li, Hong & Shi, Yanlin, 2021. "A new unique information share measure with applications on cross-listed Chinese banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Nusair, Salah A. & Al-Khasawneh, Jamal A., 2022. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on the stock markets of the G7 Countries:A nonlinear ARDL approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    8. Laivi Laidroo & Zana Grigaliuniene, 2012. "Testing for asymmetries in price reactions to quarterly earnings announcements on Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius Stock Exchanges during 2000-2009," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 61-86, July.
    9. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I. & Koulakiotis, Athanasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2017. "Intraday analysis of macroeconomic news surprises and asymmetries in mini-futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 150-168.
    10. Weber, Christoph S., 2019. "The effect of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 165-181.
    11. Ben Omrane, Walid & Savaşer, Tanseli, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility response to macroeconomic news during the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 130-143.
    12. Chou, Ke-Hsin & Day, Min-Yuh & Chiu, Chien-Liang, 2023. "Do bitcoin news information flow and return volatility fit the sequential information arrival hypothesis and the mixture of distribution hypothesis?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 365-385.
    13. Ben Omrane, Walid & Tao, Yusi & Welch, Robert, 2017. "Scheduled macro-news effects on a Euro/US dollar limit order book around the 2008 financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-30.
    14. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2022. "On the relationship between Asian exchange rates and stock prices: a nonlinear analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 361-400, February.
    15. Diamantis Petropoulos Petalas & Hein van Schie & Paul Hendriks Vettehen, 2017. "Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Bartsch, Zachary, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and dollar-pound exchange rate return volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    17. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Shi, Yanlin & Ho, Kin-Yip & Liu, Wai-Man, 2016. "Public information arrival and stock return volatility: Evidence from news sentiment and Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 291-312.
    19. Ho, Kin-Yip & Shi, Yanlin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2013. "How does news sentiment impact asset volatility? Evidence from long memory and regime-switching approaches," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 436-456.
    20. Dmitrij Celov & Žana Grigaliuniene, 2010. "Economic Forces, Sentiment and Emerging Eastern European Stock Markets," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 2(2).
    21. Shi, Yanlin & Liu, Wai-Man & Ho, Kin-Yip, 2016. "Public news arrival and the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 159-172.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; News; Nonlinearity; Smooth Transition Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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