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On the theory of sterilized foreign exchange intervention

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  • Kumhof, Michael

Abstract

Standard theory finds that, given uncovered interest parity, sterilized foreign exchange intervention should not affect equilibrium prices and quantities. This paper shows that when, as in the data, taxation is not sufficiently flexible in response to spending shocks, uncovered interest parity is replaced by a monotonically increasing relationship between the stock of domestic currency government debt and domestic interest rates. Sterilized intervention then becomes a second independent monetary policy instrument that affects portfolios, interest rates, exchange rates and consumption. It should be most effective in developing countries, where fiscal spending volatility is large and domestic currency government debt is small.

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  • Kumhof, Michael, 2010. "On the theory of sterilized foreign exchange intervention," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1403-1420, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:8:p:1403-1420
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    2. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 21427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rasmus Fatum & Jesper Pedersen & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2010. "Are the Intraday Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rate Spreads Asymmetric and State Dependent?," Discussion Papers 10-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    4. Yun, Youngjin, 2020. "Reserve accumulation and bank lending: Evidence from Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    5. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    6. Juan Camilo Medellín-Martínez, 2018. "Public Savings and the Effectiveness of Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 36(85), pages 117-136, November.
    7. Adler, Gustavo & Lisack, Noëmie & Mano, Rui C., 2019. "Unveiling the effects of foreign exchange intervention: A panel approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Zineddine Alla & Raphael A. Espinoza & Atish R. Ghosh, 2020. "FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1755-1791, October.
    9. Fatum, Rasmus, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention when interest rates are zero: Does the portfolio balance channel matter after all?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-199.
    10. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & David Perez-Reyna, 2017. "A Theoretical Approach To Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 343-365, February.
    11. Kumhof, Michael, 2018. "On the theory of international currency portfolios," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 376-396.
    12. Adler, Gustavo & Mano, Rui C., 2021. "The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Concepts and Measurement," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Chang Wen-ya & Tsai Hsueh-fang & Chang Juin-jen & Lin Hsieh-yu, 2018. "Interest rate rules and equilibrium (in)determinacy in a small open economy: the role of internationally traded capital," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-18, June.
    14. Sami Alpanda & Uluc Aysun & Serdar Kabaca, 2022. "International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers," Working Papers 2022-01, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    15. Milan Nedeljkovic & Christian Saborowski, 2019. "The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives‐Based Intervention," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1455-1490, September.
    16. Sami Alpanda & Serdar Kabaca, 2020. "International Spillovers of Large-Scale Asset Purchases," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 342-391.
    17. Nicole Aregger & Jessica Leutert, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy under Appreciation Pressure - The Role of Financial Frictions," Working Papers 17.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    18. Abdul Rishad & Sanjeev Gupta & Akhil Sharma, 2021. "Official Intervention and Exchange Rate Determination: Evidence from India," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(3), pages 357-379, September.
    19. Zineddine Alla, 2017. "Optimal policies in International Macroeconomics," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6kvjk9o32n8, Sciences Po.
    20. Alex Carrasco & David Florian Hoyle & Rafael Nivin, 2019. "SFX Interventions, Financial Intermediation, and External Shocks in Emerging Economies," Working Papers 160, Peruvian Economic Association.
    21. Zineddine Alla, 2017. "Optimal policies in international macroeconomics [Politiques optimales en macroéconomie internationale]," SciencePo Working papers tel-03436551, HAL.
    22. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    23. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "Large versus small foreign exchange interventions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 114-123.
    24. Prasad, Nalini, 2018. "Sterilized interventions and capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 101-121.

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