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Latin American Exchange Rate Dependencies: A Regular Vine Copula Approach

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  • Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya

    ()

  • José Eduardo Gómez-González

    ()

  • Luis Fernando Melo Velandia

    ()

Abstract

This study implements a regular vine copula methodology to evaluate the level of contagion among the exchange rates of six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) from June 2005 to April 2012. We measure contagion in terms of tail dependence coefficients, following Fratzscher’s (1999) definition of contagion as interdependence. Our results indicate that these countries are divided into two blocs. The first bloc consists of Brazil, Colombia, Chile and Mexico, whose exchange rates exhibit the largest dependence coefficients, and the second bloc consists of Argentina and Peru, whose exchange rate dependence coefficients with other Latin American countries are low. We also found that most of the Latin American exchange rate pairs exhibit asymmetric behaviors characterized by non-significant upper tail dependence and significant lower tail dependence. These results imply that there exists contagion in Latin American exchange rates in periods of large appreciations, while there is no evidence of contagion during periods of currency depreciation. This empirical regularity may reflect the “fear of appreciation” in emerging economies identified by Levy-Yeyati, Sturzenegger, and Gluzmann [2013].

Suggested Citation

  • Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya & José Eduardo Gómez-González & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2012. "Latin American Exchange Rate Dependencies: A Regular Vine Copula Approach," Borradores de Economia 729, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:729
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Oscar Becerra & Luis Fernando Melo, 2008. "Medidas de riesgo financiero usando cópulas: teoría y aplicaciones," Borradores de Economia 489, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Sigridur Benediktsdottir & Chiara Scotti, 2009. "Exchange rates dependence: what drives it?," International Finance Discussion Papers 969, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Orlov, Alexei G., 2009. "A cospectral analysis of exchange rate comovements during Asian financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 742-758, December.
    5. Meltem Gulenay Chadwick & Fatih Fazilet & Necati Tekatli, 2012. "Common Movement of the Emerging Market Currencies," Working Papers 1207, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Santiago Téllez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2013. "The Impact of Pre-announced Day-to-day Interventions on the Colombian Exchange Rate," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010767, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. Mauricio Villamizar, 2014. "Identifying the Effects of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks. Fear of Floating under Inflation targeting," Borradores de Economia 835, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Luis V. Bejarano-Bejarano & Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Jhon E. Torres-Gorron, 2015. "Financial Contagion in Latin America," Borradores de Economia 884, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Loaiza-Maya, Rubén Albeiro & Gómez-González, José Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2015. "Exchange rate contagion in Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 355-367.
    5. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Identifying The Effects Of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 268-296, April.
    6. Huang, Wanling & Mollick, André Varella & Nguyen, Khoa Huu, 2016. "U.S. stock markets and the role of real interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 231-242.
    7. Kjersti Aas, 2016. "Pair-Copula Constructions for Financial Applications: A Review," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(4), pages 1-15, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Copula; Regular Vine; Exchange Rates; Tail Dependence Coefficients. Classification JEL:C32; C51; E42.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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