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An Econometric Study of Vine Copulas

  • Dominique Guegan


    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics)

  • Pierre-André Maugis


    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS)

We present a new recursive algorithm to construct vine copulas based on an underlying tree structure. This new structure is interesting to compute multivariate distributions for dependent random variables. We proove the asymptotic normality of the vine copula parameter estimator and show that all vine copula parameter estimators have comparable variance. Both results are crucial to motivate any econometrical work based on vine copulas. We provide an application of vine copulas to estimate the VaR of a portfolio, and show they offer significant improvement as compared to a benchmark estimator based on a GARCH model.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00492124.

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Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2010.40 - ISSN : 1955-611X. 2010
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00492124
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  1. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Andrew J. Patton, 2008. "Copula-Based Models for Financial Time Series," Economics Series Working Papers 2008fe21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Dominique Guegan & Pierre-André Maugis, 2010. "New Prospects on Vines," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00348884, HAL.
  4. Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
  5. Loran , CHOLLETTE & Andreas , HEINEN & Alfonso , VALDESOGO, 2008. "Modelling international financial returns with a multivariate regime switching copula," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008011, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  6. Andrew Patton, 2004. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," Working Papers wp04-04, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  7. Andrew Patton & Yanqin Fan & Xiaohong Chen, 2004. "Simple Tests for Models of Dependence Between Multiple Financial Time Series, with Applications to U.S. Equity Returns and Exchange Rates," Working Papers wp04-19, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  8. Fischer, Matthias J. & Köck, Christian & Schlüter, Stephan & Weigert, Florian, 2007. "Multivariate Copula Models at Work: Outperforming the desert island copula?," Discussion Papers 79/2007, Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Statistics and Econometrics.
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