IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v47y2019icp13-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Detecting exchange rate contagion using copula functions

Author

Listed:
  • Cubillos-Rocha, Juan S.
  • Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E.
  • Melo-Velandia, Luis F.

Abstract

We study exchange rate dependence for seven countries from four different regions of the world. Our sample includes two developed countries, the United Kingdom and Germany (representing the Euro Area), two large emerging Asian economies, South Korea and Indonesia, two Latin American countries, Brazil and Chile, and South Africa. The currencies of all of these countries are actively traded in global forex markets and all of them are important for large international portfolio composition and rebalancing. We construct multivariate copula functions using a regular vine copula approach, allowing for very flexible dependency structures. We find evidence of exchange rate contagion for our set of countries. However, important asymmetries are worth noting. First, contagion occurs only during periods of exchange rate appreciation of the different currencies with respect to the United States Dollar. Second, contagion is more frequent in pairs of countries that include either the United Kingdom or Germany. In fact, the largest tail dependence coefficient corresponds to the pair composed by these two countries’ exchange rates. Third, contagion occurs more within countries of a same region, for instance, between Brazil and Chile, and between Korea and Indonesia. This result shows that during episodes of large currency appreciation hedging strategies for global investors taking positions in large markets requires of regional diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Cubillos-Rocha, Juan S. & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Melo-Velandia, Luis F., 2019. "Detecting exchange rate contagion using copula functions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 13-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:47:y:2019:i:c:p:13-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2018.12.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940818303607
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2018.12.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    2. Meegan, Andrew & Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles, 2018. "Financial market spillovers during the quantitative easing programmes of the global financial crisis (2007–2009) and the European debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 128-148.
    3. José Eduardo Gómez-González & Andrés F. García-Suaza, 2012. "A Simple Test of Momentum in Foreign Exchange Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 66-77, September.
    4. Cyril Caillault & Dominique Guegan, 2005. "Empirical estimation of tail dependence using copulas: application to Asian markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(5), pages 489-501.
    5. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Naifar, Nader & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2016. "Islamic financial markets and global crises: Contagion or decoupling?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 36-46.
    6. Anastasios Panagiotelis & Claudia Czado & Harry Joe, 2012. "Pair Copula Constructions for Multivariate Discrete Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(499), pages 1063-1072, September.
    7. Loaiza-Maya, Rubén Albeiro & Gómez-González, José Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2015. "Exchange rate contagion in Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 355-367.
    8. Dißmann, J. & Brechmann, E.C. & Czado, C. & Kurowicka, D., 2013. "Selecting and estimating regular vine copulae and application to financial returns," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 52-69.
    9. Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya & Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2015. "Latin American Exchange Rate Dependencies: A Regular Vine Copula Approach," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(3), pages 535-549, July.
    10. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2016. "Stock return predictability and determinants of predictability and profits," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 153-173.
    11. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2013. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages among international currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 319-332.
    12. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2015. "Does data frequency matter for the impact of forward premium on spot exchange rate?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 45-53.
    13. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Simos, Theodore, 2017. "Financial crises, exchange rate linkages and uncovered interest parity: Evidence from G7 markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 112-120.
    14. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    16. Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
    17. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Gluzmann, Pablo Alfredo, 2013. "Fear of appreciation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 233-247.
    18. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Papadamou, Stephanos & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2015. "Intraday exchange rate volatility transmissions across QE announcements," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 128-134.
    19. Fabrizio Durante & Piotr Jaworski, 2010. "Spatial contagion between financial markets: a copula‐based approach," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(5), pages 551-564, September.
    20. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    21. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Huson Ali Ahmed & Seema Narayan, 2015. "Do Momentum‐Based Trading Strategies Work in the Commodity Futures Markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(9), pages 868-891, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ramzi Benkraiem & Riadh Garfatta & Faten Lakhal & Imen Zorgati, 2022. "Financial contagion intensity during the COVID-19 outbreak: A copula approach," Post-Print hal-03638322, HAL.
    2. Muhammad Mar’i & Turgut Tursoy, 2021. "Exchange Rate Dependency Between Emerging Countries-Case of Black Sea Countries," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 43-54.
    3. Hendriks, Johannes Jurgens & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "Sectoral dependence and contagion in the BRICS grouping: an application of the R-Vine copulas," MPRA Paper 102473, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nathan Lael Joseph & Thi Thuy Anh Vo & Asma Mobarek & Sabur Mollah, 2020. "Volatility and asymmetric dependence in Central and East European stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1241-1303, November.
    5. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2022. "COVID-19 and currency dependences: Empirical evidence from BRICS," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    6. Lin, Saiyan & Chen, Rongda & Lv, Zhihong & Zhou, Tianqing & Jin, Chenglu, 2019. "Integrated measurement of liquidity risk and market risk of company bonds based on the optimal Copula model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    7. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Garfatta, Riadh & Lakhal, Faten & Zorgati, Imen, 2022. "Financial contagion intensity during the COVID-19 outbreak: A copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Jose Eduardo Gomez‐Gonzalez & Julian Andres Parra‐Polania & Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas, 2021. "More than words: Foreign exchange intervention under imperfect credibility," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 499-507, October.
    9. Bhatia, Shipra & Tuteja, Divya, 2024. "Contagion and linkages across international currencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Valencia, Oscar M. & Sánchez, Gustavo A., 2022. "How fiscal rules can reduce sovereign debt default risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Zhang, Feipeng & Xu, Yixiong & Yuan, Di, 2024. "Detecting financial contagion using a new nonparametric measure of asymmetric comovements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 284-296.
    12. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Rojas-Espinosa, Wilmer, 2019. "Detecting contagion in Asian exchange rate markets using asymmetric DCC-GARCH and R-vine copulas," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    13. Wang, Haiying & Yuan, Ying & Li, Yiou & Wang, Xunhong, 2021. "Financial contagion and contagion channels in the forex market: A new approach via the dynamic mixture copula-extreme value theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 401-414.
    14. Wang, Peiwan & Zong, Lu, 2020. "Contagion effects and risk transmission channels in the housing, stock, interest rate and currency markets: An Empirical Study in China and the U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2020. "Dynamic exchange rate dependences: The effect of the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    16. Hu, Genhua & Fan, Gang-Zhi, 2022. "Empirical evidence of risk contagion across regional housing markets in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Rojas-Espinosa, Wilmer, 2019. "Detecting contagion in Asian exchange rate markets using asymmetric DCC-GARCH and R-vine copulas," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    2. Liow, Kim Hiang & Song, Jeongseop, 2020. "Dynamic interdependence of ASEAN5 with G5 stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Loaiza-Maya, Rubén Albeiro & Gómez-González, José Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2015. "Exchange rate contagion in Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 355-367.
    4. Muhammad Mar’i & Turgut Tursoy, 2021. "Exchange Rate Dependency Between Emerging Countries-Case of Black Sea Countries," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 43-54.
    5. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose & Rojas-Espinosa, Wilmer, 2018. "Detecting exchange rate contagion in Asian exchange rate markets using asymmetric DDC-GARCH and R-vine copulas," MPRA Paper 88578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Luis V. Bejarano-Bejarano & Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Jhon E. Torres-Gorron, 2015. "Financial Contagion in Latin America," Borradores de Economia 12820, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Aubin, Christian & Goyeau, Daniel & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Extreme co-movements and dependencies among major international exchange rates: A copula approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 56-69.
    8. Alexakis, Christos & Pappas, Vasileios, 2018. "Sectoral dynamics of financial contagion in Europe - The cases of the recent crises episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 222-239.
    9. Simona Moagăr-Poladian & Dorina Clichici & Cristian-Valeriu Stanciu, 2019. "The Comovement of Exchange Rates and Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2016. "Contagion in International Stock and Currency Markets During Recent Crisis Episodes," Working papers 258, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    11. Ahmed BenSaïda & Houda Litimi, 2021. "Financial contagion across G10 stock markets: A study during major crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4798-4821, July.
    12. Oussama Tilfani & Paulo Ferreira & My Youssef El Boukfaoui, 2021. "Dynamic cross-correlation and dynamic contagion of stock markets: a sliding windows approach with the DCCA correlation coefficient," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1127-1156, March.
    13. Çekin, Semih Emre & Pradhan, Ashis Kumar & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Measuring co-dependencies of economic policy uncertainty in Latin American countries using vine copulas," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 207-217.
    14. Bhatia, Shipra & Tuteja, Divya, 2024. "Contagion and linkages across international currencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Ndiweni, Zinzile Lorna & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2022. "Contagion or decoupling? Evidence from emerging stock markets," MPRA Paper 115170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Bazán-Palomino, Walter, 2022. "Interdependence, contagion and speculative bubbles in cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    17. Hübel, Benjamin, 2022. "Do markets value ESG risks in sovereign credit curves?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 134-148.
    18. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Naifar, Nader & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2016. "Islamic financial markets and global crises: Contagion or decoupling?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 36-46.
    19. Kjersti Aas, 2016. "Pair-Copula Constructions for Financial Applications: A Review," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-15, October.
    20. Dua, Pami & Tuteja, Divya, 2016. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages across international stock and currency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 249-261.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Copula functions; Exchange rate contagion; Emerging and developed economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:47:y:2019:i:c:p:13-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.