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Exchange rates dependence: what drives it?

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  • Sigridur Benediktsdottir
  • Chiara Scotti

Abstract

Exchange rate movements are difficult to predict but there appear to be discernible patterns in how currencies jointly appreciate or depreciate against the dollar. In this paper, we study the dependence structure of a number of exchange rate pairs against the dollar. We employ a conditional copula approach to recover the joint distributions for pairs of exchange rates and study both the correlation and the upper and lower tail dependence of these distributions. We analyze changes in dependence measures over time, and we investigate whether these measures are affected by the business cycle or interest rate differentials. Our results show that dependencies are indeed time-varying. We find that foreign and U.S. recessions affect the joint dependence structure and that currencies with higher interest rate differentials tend to move less closely together, not only on average (correlation), but also when extreme events occur (tails).

Suggested Citation

  • Sigridur Benediktsdottir & Chiara Scotti, 2009. "Exchange rates dependence: what drives it?," International Finance Discussion Papers 969, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:969
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    Cited by:

    1. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Prasert Chaitip, 2012. "A Comparative Analysis of ASEAN Currencies Using a Copula Approach and a Dynamic Copula Approach," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 12(4), pages 39-52.
    2. Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya & Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2015. "Latin American Exchange Rate Dependencies: A Regular Vine Copula Approach," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(3), pages 535-549, July.
    3. Li, Xiao-Ming, 2011. "How do exchange rates co-move? A study on the currencies of five inflation-targeting countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 418-429, February.
    4. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    5. Chia-Hsun Hsieh & Shian-Chang Huang, 2012. "Time-Varying Dependency and Structural Changes in Currency Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 94-127, March.
    6. repec:eee:jimfin:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:199-215 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Itir OZER-IMER & Ibrahim OZKAN, 2013. "On the Co-Movements of Exchange Rates," Chapters of Financial Aspects of Recent Trends in the Global Economy book,in: Rajmund Mirdala (ed.), Financial Aspects of Recent Trends in the Global Economy, volume 2, chapter 1, pages 12-37 ASERS Publishing.

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