IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/718.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Breaking the trilemma: the effects of financial regulations on foreign assets

Author

Listed:
  • David Perez-Reyna
  • Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the effects of financial constraints on the exchange rate through the portfolio balance channel. Our contribution is twofold: First, we construct a tractable two-period general equilibrium model in which financial constraints inhibit capital flows. Hence, departures from the uncovered interest rate parity condition are used to explain the effects of sterilized foreign exchange intervention. Second, using high frequency data during 2004-2015, we use a sharp policy discontinuity within Colombian regulatory banking limits to empirically test for the portfolio balance channel. Consistent with our model's postulations, our findings suggest that the effects on the exchange rate are short-lived, and significant only when banking constraints are binding.

Suggested Citation

  • David Perez-Reyna & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "Breaking the trilemma: the effects of financial regulations on foreign assets," BIS Working Papers 718, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:718
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work718.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work718.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juan Jose Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2008. "Expectativas, Tasa de Interés y Tasa de Cambio. Paridad Cubierta y no Cubierta en Colombia 2000-2007," Borradores de Economia 4514, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2009. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt840728sc, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    3. Pentti J.K. Kouri, 1981. "Balance of Payments and the Foreign Exchange Market: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Model," NBER Working Papers 0644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez, 2008. "Expectativas, tasa de interés y tasa de cambio: paridad cubierta y no cubierta en Colombia, 2000-2007," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, June.
    5. Breedon, Francis & Vitale, Paolo, 2010. "An empirical study of portfolio-balance and information effects of order flow on exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 504-524, April.
    6. Andrés J. García Bernal & José E. Gómez-González & Tatiana A. Mora-Arbeláez & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2015. "Una historia exhaustiva de la regulación financiera en Colombia: El caso del encaje bancario, derivados financieros y riesgos de crédito," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 45(2), pages 221-268, December.
    7. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    8. Nicolas Magud & Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-10, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    9. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    10. Lemieux, Thomas & Milligan, Kevin, 2008. "Incentive effects of social assistance: A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 807-828, February.
    11. Roberto Chang, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Intervention Redux," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 7, pages 205-247, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    13. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust data-driven inference in the regression-discontinuity design," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 14(4), pages 909-946, December.
    14. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2018. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality--A Portfolio Balance Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 1-47, May.
    15. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805, Elsevier.
    16. Aoki, Kosuke & Nikolov, Kalin, 2015. "Bubbles, banks and financial stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 33-51.
    17. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2017. "Financial Frictions and Unconventional Monetary Policy in Emerging Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 154-191, April.
    18. Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2008. "The welfare cost of bank capital requirements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-320, March.
    19. Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2013. "Asset Prices and Institutional Investors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1728-1758, August.
    20. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    21. Wioletta Dziuda & Jordi Mondria, 2012. "Asymmetric Information, Portfolio Managers, and Home Bias," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2109-2154.
    22. Nelson Camanho & Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2022. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5228-5274.
    23. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2003. "Is sterilised foreign exchange intervention effective after all? an event study approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 390-411, April.
    24. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
    25. Martin D. D. Evans (Georgetown University), 2005. "Foreign Exchange Market Microstructure," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-20, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    26. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    27. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 685-718.
    28. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    29. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    30. Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "High‐Frequency Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What Do We Learn?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 85-112, February.
    31. Boris Hofmann & Hyun Song Shin & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2019. "FX intervention and domestic credit: evidence from high-frequency micro data," Borradores de Economia 1069, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    32. Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andrés, 2017. "Financial intermediation, real exchange rates, and unconventional policies in an open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 76-86.
    33. Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Herman Kamil, 2009. "Are Capital Controls Effective in the 21st Century? the Recent Experience of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 2009/030, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Stephanie Riegg Cellini & Fernando Ferreira & Jesse Rothstein, 2010. "The Value of School Facility Investments: Evidence from a Dynamic Regression Discontinuity Design," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 215-261.
    35. Dale W. Henderson & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1981. "New foreign asset positions and stability in a world portfolio balance model," International Finance Discussion Papers 178, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
    37. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & David Perez-Reyna, 2017. "A Theoretical Approach To Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 343-365, February.
    38. Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-948, September.
    39. Kuersteiner, Guido M. & Phillips, David C. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "Effective sterilized foreign exchange intervention? Evidence from a rule-based policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 118-138.
    40. Guido Imbens & Karthik Kalyanaraman, 2012. "Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 933-959.
    41. Jinyong Hahn & Petra Todd & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 1999. "Evaluating the Effect of an Antidiscrimination Law Using a Regression-Discontinuity Design," NBER Working Papers 7131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    43. Hernán Rincón & Jorge Toro, 2010. "Are Capital Controls and Central Bank Intervention Effective?," Borradores de Economia 7622, Banco de la Republica.
    44. Pamela Cardozo & Fredy Gamboa & David Perez-Reyna & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Banking Limits on Foreign Holdings: Disentangling the Portfolio Balance Channel," Borradores de Economia 934, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    45. Hill, Enoch & Perez-Reyna, David, 2017. "Financial development and occupational choice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 393-409.
    46. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    47. Chamon, Marcos & Garcia, Márcio & Souza, Laura, 2017. "FX interventions in Brazil: A synthetic control approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 157-168.
    48. Kouri, Pentti J.K., 1981. "Balance of Payments and the Foreign Exchange Market: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 81-09, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    49. Fatum, Rasmus, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention when interest rates are zero: Does the portfolio balance channel matter after all?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-199.
    50. Guido M. Kuersteiner & David C. Phillips & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Supplementary Material for “The Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Evidence from a Rule-Based Policy in Colombia”," Borradores de Economia 965, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    51. Edison, H.J., 1993. "The Effectiveness of Central-Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Litterature after 1982," Princeton Studies in International Economics 18, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    52. Ho, Wai-Ming, 2008. "The welfare implications of foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1360-1382, December.
    53. Christopher Carpenter & Carlos Dobkin, 2009. "The Effect of Alcohol Consumption on Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 164-182, January.
    54. Prasad, Nalini, 2018. "Sterilized interventions and capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 101-121.
    55. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    56. Sebastian Edwards, 1984. "Money, The Rate of Devaluation and Interest Rates in a Semi-Open Economy: Colombia 1968-1982," NBER Working Papers 1380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. Kim, Soyoung, 2003. "Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate in a unifying framework," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 355-386, August.
    58. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    59. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2002. "Estimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers on College Enrollment: A Regression-Discontinuity Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1249-1287, November.
    60. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    61. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
    62. Joshua D. Angrist & Victor Lavy, 1999. "Using Maimonides' Rule to Estimate the Effect of Class Size on Scholastic Achievement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 533-575.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2022. "What is the impact of macroprudential regulations on the Swedish housing market?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Richard Clarida, 2018. "The global factor in neutral policy rates: Some implications for exchange rates, monetary policy, and policy coordination," BIS Working Papers 732, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Timothy P. Jackson & Luiz Pereira da Silva, 2020. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and Financial Stability," Working Papers 202027, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    4. Itamar Caspi & Amit Friedman & Sigal Ribon, 2022. "The Immediate Impact and Persistent Effect of FX Purchases on the Exchange Rate," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(5), pages 1-31, December.
    5. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pamela Cardozo & Fredy Gamboa & David Perez-Reyna & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Banking Limits on Foreign Holdings: Disentangling the Portfolio Balance Channel," Borradores de Economia 934, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Kuersteiner, Guido M. & Phillips, David C. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "Effective sterilized foreign exchange intervention? Evidence from a rule-based policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 118-138.
    3. Laura Andrade-Pardo & Oscar Valencia-Arana & Diego Vásquez-Escobar & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Uncovering the portfolio balance channel with the use of sovereign credit ratings," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 34(81), pages 191-205, November.
    4. Juan J. Echavarría & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1319-1336, November.
    5. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & David Perez-Reyna, 2017. "A Theoretical Approach To Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 343-365, February.
    6. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    7. Freddy A. Pinzón-Puerto & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2023. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? A Foreign Exchange Intervention Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Daniel Ordoñez‐Callamand & Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Luis F. Melo‐Velandia, 2018. "Foreign exchange intervention revisited: A new way of estimating censored models," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 195-213, June.
    9. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Hernandez-Leal, Juan D. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "When multiple objectives meet multiple instruments: Identifying simultaneous monetary shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-101.
    10. Steven F. Koch & Jeffrey S. Racine, 2016. "Healthcare facility choice and user fee abolition: regression discontinuity in a multinomial choice setting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(4), pages 927-950, October.
    11. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    13. Valeria Bejarano-Salcedo & William Iván Moreno-Jimenez & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2020. "La Magnitud y Duración del Efecto de la Intervención por Subastas sobre el Mercado Cambiario: El caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 1142, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Lucía Arango-Lozano & Lukas Menkhoff & Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2020. "The Effectiveness of FX Interventions: A Meta-Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1132, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    16. Blaise Melly & Rafael Lalive, 2020. "Estimation, Inference, and Interpretation in the Regression Discontinuity Design," Diskussionsschriften dp2016, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    17. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    18. Fratzscher, Marcel & Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Stöhr, Tobias, 2019. "When Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective? Evidence from 33 Countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 0(1), pages 132-156.
    19. Daniel Höhmann, 2017. "The effect of legislature size on public spending: evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 345-367, December.
    20. Solé-Ollé, Albert & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2013. "Do political parties matter for local land use policies?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-56.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    liquidity dependence; macro-financial linkages; Smooth Transition Bayesian VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:718. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.