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The Immediate Impact and Persistent Effect of FX Purchases on the Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Itamar Caspi

    () (Bank of Israel)

  • Amit Friedman

    () (Bank of Israel)

  • Sigal Ribon

    () (Bank of Israel)

Abstract

In recent years, Forex (FX) interventions have been routinely used by the Bank of Israel as well as by other central banks as an additional monetary instrument, with the objective of moderating appreciation trends of the domestic currency. This paper analyzes the immediate effect of the Bank of Israel’s FX interventions on the exchange rate and the persistence of this effect over time. To identify this effect, we first measure the intraday impact of FX intervention using a novel high-frequency, minute-by-minute dataset of interventions between 2009 and 2017. Next, we use our intraday measure to estimate the persistence of FX intervention shocks over longer horizons (in trading days), where we base our empirical approach on the potential outcome framework and the Local Projections method. We find that FX intervention shocks – that is, unexpected FX purchases – cause, on impact USDILS exchange rate depreciation in over 90 percent of the cases. We also find that this effect has a persistent impact on the nominal effective exchange rate for about 40­–60 trading days, which are equivalent to between 2 and 3 calendar months. Based on this finding we infer that between 2013 and 2017 interventions caused the level of the exchange rate to depreciate by about 2–3 percent on average, where the effect of each intervention varied with its intensity. We stress that these results reflect the contribution of unexpected FX purchases given the fact that the discretionary intervention regime was in place throughout the investigated period, and not the effect of the presence of the regime itself.​

Suggested Citation

  • Itamar Caspi & Amit Friedman & Sigal Ribon, 2018. "The Immediate Impact and Persistent Effect of FX Purchases on the Exchange Rate," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2018.04, Bank of Israel.
  • Handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2018.04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Donald B. Rubin, 1977. "Assignment to Treatment Group on the Basis of a Covariate," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, March.
    2. repec:aea:aejmac:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:132-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & David Perez-Reyna, 2015. "A Survey on the Effects of Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012424, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    4. Marcel Fratzscher & Oliver Gloede & Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Tobias Stöhr, 2019. "When Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective? Evidence from 33 Countries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 132-156, January.
    5. Kuersteiner, Guido M. & Phillips, David C. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "Effective sterilized foreign exchange intervention? Evidence from a rule-based policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 118-138.
    6. Gustavo Adler & Noemie Lisack & Rui Mano, 2015. "Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention; A Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 15/130, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sterilized FX interventions; high frequency data; impulse response; local projections; potential outcome; Bank of Israel;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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