IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rio/texdis/630.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

FX interventions in Brazil: a synthetic control approach

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Chamon

    (IMF)

  • Laura Candido de Souza

    (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)

  • Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia

    (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)

Abstract

In the aftermath of the taper tantrum, the Central Bank of Brazil announced a major program of sterilized foreign exchange intervention. We use a synthetic control approach to estimate its impact on the level and volatility of the exchange rate. Our counterfactual results, based on the experience of other emerging markets, indicate the program led to an appreciation of the Brazilian real in excess of 10%. Some of our estimates also point to a decline in the option-implied volatility. A second announcement extending the program had more muted effects, and subsequent extensions had little or no impact.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Chamon & Laura Candido de Souza & Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 2015. "FX interventions in Brazil: a synthetic control approach," Textos para discussão 630, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:630
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.puc-rio.br/uploads/adm/trabalhos/files/td630.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    2. Chamon, Marcos & Garcia, Márcio, 2016. "Capital controls in Brazil: Effective?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 163-187.
    3. Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1187-1208, September.
    4. João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso, 2018. "Realized Volatility as an Instrument to Official Intervention," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 259-281, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    5. Carvalho, Carlos & Masini, Ricardo & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2018. "ArCo: An artificial counterfactual approach for high-dimensional panel time-series data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 352-380.
    6. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    7. Marcio Garcia & Tony Volpon, 2014. "DNDFs:a more efficient way to intervene in FX markets?," Textos para discussão 621, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    8. Jinjarak, Yothin & Noy, Ilan & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2013. "Capital controls in Brazil – Stemming a tide with a signal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2938-2952.
    9. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Sandro C. Andrade, 2013. "Official Interventions through Derivatives: affecting the demand for foreign exchange," Working Papers Series 317, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Kristin J Forbes & Michael W Klein, 2015. "Pick Your Poison: The Choices and Consequences of Policy Responses to Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 197-237, May.
    11. Pablo Pincheira, 2013. "Interventions and Inflation Expectations in an Inflation Targeting Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 693, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    13. Campbell, John Y. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig & Whitelaw, Robert F., 1998. "The Econometrics Of Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 559-562, December.
    14. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Barbone Gonzalez, Rodrigo & Khametshin, Dmitry & Peydró, José Luis & Polo, Andrea, 2018. "Hedger of Last Resort: Evidence from Brazilian FX Interventions, Local Credit and Global Financial Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 12817, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Aytuğ, Hüseyin, 2017. "Does the reserve options mechanism really decrease exchange rate volatility? The synthetic control method approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 405-416.
    3. Lukas Boer, 2019. "Measuring the Effect of Foreign Exchange Intervention Policies on Exchange Rates," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 128, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Fratzscher, Marcel & Heidland, Tobias & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik, 2020. "Foreign exchange intervention: A new database," Kiel Working Papers 2171, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Buchholz, Manuel & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Tonzer, Lena, 2018. "Did the Swiss exchange rate shock shock the market?," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    6. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Gustavo Silva Araujo & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2015. "As Atuações Cambiais do Banco Central Afetam as Expectativas de Mercado?," Working Papers Series 393, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Chertman, Fernando & Hutchison, Michael & Zink, David, 2020. "Facing the Quadrilemma: Taylor rules, intervention policy and capital controls in large emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2020. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 693-719, September.
    9. Smita Roy Trivedi, 2020. "The Moses effect: can central banks really guide foreign exchange markets?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2837-2865, June.
    10. Dennis Essers & Stefaan Ide, 2017. "The IMF and precautionary lending : An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the flexible credit line," Working Paper Research 323, National Bank of Belgium.
    11. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 0. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-27.
    12. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2020. "A lesson from the four recent large public Japanese FX interventions," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    13. Suman S. Basu & Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Pablo E. Winant, 2018. "Managing Capital Outflows with Limited Reserves," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(2), pages 333-374, June.
    14. Perez-Reyna, David & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2019. "Exchange rate effects of financial regulations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 228-245.
    15. Luna Santos, Francisco, 2021. "Comparing the impact of discretionary and pre-announced central bank interventions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Wanling Rudkin & Charlie X Cai, 2019. "Reaction Asymmetries to Social Responsibility Index Recomposition: A Matching Portfolio Approach," Papers 1911.12582, arXiv.org.
    17. Borbely, Daniel, 2019. "A case study on Germany’s aviation tax using the synthetic control approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 377-395.
    18. Horacio Aguirre & Gustavo Cañonero & Mario Torriani, 2019. "Foreign exchange intervention and reserve accumulation in an emerging market economy: selected issues," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Reserve management and FX intervention, volume 104, pages 57-74, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Kim, Hyejin & Lee, Jungmin, 2019. "Can employment subsidies save jobs? Evidence from a shipbuilding city in South Korea," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    20. Milan Nedeljkovic & Christian Saborowski, 2018. "The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives Based Intervention," CESifo Working Paper Series 7127, CESifo.
    21. Essers, Dennis & Ide, Stefaan, 2019. "The IMF and precautionary lending: An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the Flexible Credit Line," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 25-61.
    22. Milan Nedeljkovic & Christian Saborowski, 2019. "The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives‐Based Intervention," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1455-1490, September.
    23. Viola, Alessandra Pasqualina & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo & da Silveira Barbedo, Claudio Henrique, 2019. "Foreign exchange interventions in Brazil and their impact on volatility: A quantile regression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 251-263.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roberto Chang, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Intervention Redux," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 7, pages 205-247, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Luna Santos, Francisco, 2021. "Comparing the impact of discretionary and pre-announced central bank interventions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Radhika Pandey & Gurnain Pasricha & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2015. "Motivations for Capital Controls and Their Effectiveness," Staff Working Papers 15-5, Bank of Canada.
    4. Zineddine Alla, 2017. "Optimal policies in International Macroeconomics," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6kvjk9o32n8, Sciences Po.
    5. Martín Tobal & Renato Yslas, 2018. "Two Models of FX Market Interventions: The Cases of Brazil and Mexico," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 221-257, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    6. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Luis I. Jacome H. & Nicolas E Magud & Alejandro M. Werner, 2016. "Central Banking in Latin America; The Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 16/197, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Zineddine Alla & Raphael A. Espinoza & Atish R. Ghosh, 2020. "FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1755-1791, October.
    8. Prasad, Nalini, 2018. "Sterilized interventions and capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 101-121.
    9. Catalán-Herrera, Juan, 2016. "Foreign exchange market interventions under inflation targeting: The case of Guatemala," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 101-114.
    10. Syarifuddin, Ferry, 2020. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Foreign Exchange Futures Market for Inflation Targeting Economies," MPRA Paper 104810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 0. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-27.
    12. Suman S. Basu & Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Pablo E. Winant, 2018. "Managing Capital Outflows with Limited Reserves," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(2), pages 333-374, June.
    13. Syarifuddin, Ferry & Izzulhaq, Syahid, 2020. "The Effectiveness of Futures-based Foreign Exchange Intervention: Comparative Studies of Brazil and India," MPRA Paper 104709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Adler, Gustavo & Lisack, Noëmie & Mano, Rui C., 2019. "Unveiling the effects of foreign exchange intervention: A panel approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Anton Grui, 2020. "Uncovered interest parity with foreign exchange interventions under exchange rate peg and inflation targeting: The case of Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 14-2020, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    16. Milan Nedeljkovic & Christian Saborowski, 2019. "The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives‐Based Intervention," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1455-1490, September.
    17. Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 283-299.
    18. Viola, Alessandra Pasqualina & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo & da Silveira Barbedo, Claudio Henrique, 2019. "Foreign exchange interventions in Brazil and their impact on volatility: A quantile regression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 251-263.
    19. Fratzscher, Marcel & Heidland, Tobias & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik, 2020. "Foreign exchange intervention: A new database," Kiel Working Papers 2171, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    20. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:630. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dpucrbr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.