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Expectativas, Tasa de Interés y Tasa de Cambio. Paridad Cubierta y no Cubierta en Colombia 2000- 2007

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  • Juan José Echavarría

    ()

  • Diego Vásquez

    ()

  • Mauricio Villamizar

    ()

Abstract

En este trabajo se utilizan tasas marginales de interés, tasas de cambio forwards y encuestas sobre expectativas de devaluación con el fin de verificar las hipótesis de paridad cubierta (PC) y no cubierta (PNC) de las tasas de interés en Colombia en el período 2000-2007. Se encuentra evidencia de cumplimiento de PC para períodos de maduración de 1 año (y se sugiere que también podría ser válida para períodos menores) y evidencia de PNC para períodos superiores a 1 semestre. La "anomalía" que se detecta para algunos períodos de maduración al utilizar el supuesto de expectativas racionales y el diferencial de tasas de interés como variable independiente parece ser el resultado de variables omitidas o mal medidas.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2008. "Expectativas, Tasa de Interés y Tasa de Cambio. Paridad Cubierta y no Cubierta en Colombia 2000- 2007," Borradores de Economia 486, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:486
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Gloria Alonso Masmela & Juan Nicólas Hernández & José David Pulido & Martha Lucía Villa, 2008. "Medidas Alternativas De Tasa De Cambio Real Para Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004679, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Juan José Echavarría S. & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 2009. "Intervenciones cambiarias y política monetaria en Colombia. Un análisis de VAR estructural," Borradores de Economia 580, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Diego Alejandro Martínez Cruz & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez & Juan Sebastián Rojas Moreno, 2015. "Evolución de la relación entre bonos locales y externos del gobierno colombiano frente a choques de riesgo," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 014112, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar & Diego Vásquez, 2010. "Impacto de las intervenciones cambiarias sobre el nivel y la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio en Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(62), pages 12-69, Junio.
    6. Rafael Puyana, 2010. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007801, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    7. Sebastian Gomez-Cardona, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate in a Structural VAR for a Small Open Economy," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, November.
    8. Rafael Puyana Martínez-Villalba, 2011. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 007959, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    paridad no cubierta; paridad cubierta; expectativas de devaluación; forwards de tasa de interés; forwards de tasa de cambio; tasa de cambio spot. Classification JEL: E42; E43; E58.;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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