IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Flujos de capitales, restricciones de liquidez y paradas súbitas: lecciones de países emergentes

Listed author(s):
  • Andrés Mauricio Vargas P.

    ()

"¿Por qué suceden las paradas súbitas en los flujos de capitales? La hipótesis de este artículo es que es por la elevada deuda externa de corto plazo. La financiación de la inversión de largo plazo con recursos de corto plazo deja a la economía expuesta a una restricción de crédito. Se utiliza un modelo en el que se determinan conjuntamente la madurez y el costo del endeudamiento externo. En estas circunstancias la conjetura de los prestamistas sobre la capacidad de pago del deudor ocasiona la parada súbita. El evento también puede ser desencadenado por cambios en las condiciones globales de liquidez y/o del apetito por riesgo. La estimación se hizo para un grupo de 39 países emergentes en el periodo 1984-2005. Los resultados confirman el papel desestabilizador de la deuda externa de corto plazo, el déficit en cuenta corriente y el contagio. Se encuentra además que el grado de apertura al capital no incrementa sustancialmente la probabilidad de crisis, mientras que los países que experimentan una liberalización financiera rápida son más proclives a la crisis." “This paper argues that high external short-term debt is the main determinant of sudden stops in capital flows. Large external short-term debt increases macroeconomic vulnerabilities through negative balance sheet effects. Crises can also occur due to changes in liquidity conditions or risk aversion. A model that jointly determines maturity and cost of external debt is used, covering 39 emerging economies for the period 1984-2005. The main results may be summarized as follows: higher external-short-term debt increases the probability of crisis, as well as currents account deficits and contagion effects, whereas more financial openness leads economies to be more vulnerable to capital reversal, especially for those countries which undergone financial liberalization at a faster pace.”

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/2082
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by FEDESARROLLO in its journal COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): (December)
Pages:

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013333
Contact details of provider:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
  2. Molina, Danielken & Roa, Monica, 2014. "The Effect of Credit on the Export Performance of Colombian Exporters," MPRA Paper 56137, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein, 2006. "Evaluation of currency regimes: the unique role of sudden stops," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 119-152, 01.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects and Financial Integration," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1628, Inter-American Development Bank.
  6. De Nicolo, Gianni & Honohan, Patrick & Ize, Alain, 2003. "Dollarization of the banking system : good or bad?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3116, The World Bank.
  7. Ricardo Caballero & Kevin Cowan & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Fear of Sudden Stops: Lessons From Australia and Chile," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 313-354.
  8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  9. Ranciere, Romain & Tornell, Aaron & Westermann, Frank, 2006. "Decomposing the effects of financial liberalization: Crises vs. growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3331-3348, December.
  10. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
  11. César E. Tamayo & Andrés M. Vargas, 2008. "Flujos de capital y frenazos súbitos: teoría, historia y una nueva estimación," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 27-56, enero-mar.
  12. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  13. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
  14. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2001. "A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517.
  15. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance Of Balance-Sheet Effects And Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 14026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
  18. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 269-334 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
  20. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005. "Boom-Bust Cycles and Financial Liberalization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262201593, January.
  21. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  23. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
  24. Juan Carlos Echeverry & Leopoldo Fergusson & Roberto Steiner & Camila Aguilar, 2003. "Determinants And Consequences Of Foreign In Debtedness In Colombian Firms," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 002333, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  25. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Garry J. Schinasi & R. Todd Smith, 2000. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-1.
  27. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2003. "Spillovers through banking centers: a panel data analysis of bank flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 483-509, August.
  29. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
  30. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1997. "Credible Economic Liberalizations and Overborrowing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 189-193, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000438:013333. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lucía Fenney Pérez)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.