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Flujos de capital y frenazos súbitos: teoría, historia y una nueva estimación


  • César E. Tamayo

    (Asociación Nacional de Instituciones Financieras (ANIF))

  • Andrés M. Vargas

    (Grupo BanColombia)


“Este trabajo es una nueva aproximación a la ocurrencia de frenazos súbitos a partir de los problemas de liquidez como su principal determinante. Se presenta una extensión al modelo planteado originalmente por Rodrik y Velasco (1999) y se estima un modelo Probit para una muestra de 39 países y el período 1978 - 2006 en el que se buscan los principales determinantes de la ocurrencia de crisis. Los resultados confirman la hipótesis de iliquidez mientras que cuestionan la acumulación de Reservas como condición suficiente para reducir la probabilidad de ocurrencia de crisis en la misma línea de Calvo (2006). Asimismo, el ejercicio ofrece un nuevo acercamiento al papel que juega el grado de apertura al capital en la incidencia de frenazos súbitos. Para el caso de Colombia se observa que la probabilidad estimada de sufrir crisis ha caído sustancialmente, producto de menores déficits en cuenta corriente y una caída sistemática en la deuda de corto plazo desde mediados de los años 1990.”
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • César E. Tamayo & Andrés M. Vargas, 2008. "Flujos de capital y frenazos súbitos: teoría, historia y una nueva estimación," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 27-56, enero-mar.
  • Handle: RePEc:cml:moneta:v:xxxi:y:2008:i:1:p:27-56

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Francis Ahking, 1997. "Testing long-run purchasing power parity with a Bayesian unit root approach: the experience of Canada in the 1950s," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 813-819.
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    3. Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Under NAFTA," NBER Working Papers 7429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. L. Randall Wray & Stephanie Bell, 2004. "Introduction," Chapters,in: Credit and State Theories of Money, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Liang, Feng & Paulo, Rui & Molina, German & Clyde, Merlise A. & Berger, Jim O., 2008. "Mixtures of g Priors for Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 410-423, March.
    6. Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991. "A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 195-238.
    7. Philippe Robert-Demontrond & R. Ringoot, 2004. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00081823, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Mauricio Vargas P., 2008. "Flujos de capitales, restricciones de liquidez y paradas súbitas: lecciones de países emergentes," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems


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