The duration of Dutch export relations: decomposing firm, country and product characteristics

Using Dutch transaction-level data on international trade we find that the intensive margin drives Dutch trade growth year by year. After 6 years, new trade relations cover about 50 percent of Dutch exports. Each year 40 percent of the relations are new, but only 25 percent survives after two years. We distinguish several firm-country-product (FCP) relations characterised by the export familiarity of the firm, country or product to identify differences in survival rates. The estimates show that the hazard rates of trade relations with new exporting firms or incumbent firms to new countries are about 15 percent lower. EU membership decreases the hazard rate by 40 percent. Initial sales are also important. Relations with an initial export value of about 50 thousand euro do not survive, while those with an initial value of 200 thousand euro exist after a few years. Exports with homogeneous goods tend to have higher initial trade values and the hazard is about 10 percent lower than those with heterogeneous goods. Read also: De economist, juni 2015, Volume 163, Issue 2, pp 155-176