IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ems/euriss/104224.html

Global trade finance, trade collapse and trade slowdown: a Granger causality analysis

Author

Listed:
  • van Bergeijk, P.A.G.
  • Dao, T.K.

Abstract

This research paper provides a causality assessment on the linkage between declines in world trade finance and the world trade collapse in the period following the Financial Crisis of 2008 and 2009 as well as the ensuing global trade slowdown. The paper performs Granger Causality tests on two time series: World trade (volume data acquired from the CPB World Trade Monitor) and World trade finance (transaction data acquired from SWIFT), using global monthly data from January 2007 to May 2017. In the short run, Granger causality always runs one-way from world trade finance to world trade. We always find two-way Granger causality for lags longer than two years. Importantly Granger causality never runs one-way from world trade to world trade finance. Given the short-term nature of trade finance, we conclude that world trade finance Granger-causes world trade.

Suggested Citation

  • van Bergeijk, P.A.G. & Dao, T.K., 2018. "Global trade finance, trade collapse and trade slowdown: a Granger causality analysis," ISS Working Papers - General Series 634, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:euriss:104224
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/104224/WP634.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Irwin, Douglas A., 2010. "The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 871-897, December.
    2. Mr. Thomas William Dorsey & Mika Saito & Armine Khachatryan & Ms. Irena Asmundson & Ioana Niculcea, 2011. "Trade and Trade Finance in the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/016, International Monetary Fund.
    3. JaeBin Ahn & Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Trade Finance and the Great Trade Collapse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 298-302, May.
    4. Calista Cheung & Stéphanie Guichard, 2009. "Understanding the World Trade Collapse," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 729, OECD Publishing.
    5. Silvia Del Prete & Stefano Federico, 2014. "Trade and finance: is there more than just 'trade finance'? Evidence from matched bank-firm data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 948, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Jane Korinek & Jean Le Cocguic & Patricia Sourdin, 2010. "The Availability and Cost of Short-Term Trade Finance and its Impact on Trade," OECD Trade Policy Papers 98, OECD Publishing.
    7. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    8. Kristian Behrens & Gregory Corcos & Giordano Mion, 2013. "Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 702-709, May.
    9. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2010. "On the Brink of Deglobalization," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14122.
    10. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    11. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2015. "The heterogeneity of world trade collapses," ISS Working Papers - General Series 606, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    12. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    13. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2010. "Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 295-326, December.
    14. Chauffour, Jean-Pierre & Saborowski, Christian & Soylemezoglu, Ahmet I., 2010. "Trade finance in crisis : should developing countries establish export credit agencies ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5166, The World Bank.
    15. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    16. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    17. Freund, Caroline, 2009. "The trade response to global downturns : historical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5015, The World Bank.
    18. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    19. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2013. "Earth Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14673.
    20. Marc Auboin & Alisa DiCaprio, 2017. "Why Do Trade Finance Gaps Persist: Does it Matter for Trade and Development?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6425, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560.
    2. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, May.
    3. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2018. "Quality and the Great Trade Collapse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 59-76.
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2014. "Trade finance: developments and issues," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 50.
    5. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2017. "One is not enough! An economic history perspective on world trade collapses and deglobalization," ISS Working Papers - General Series 98695, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    6. Mattia Di Ubaldo, 2015. "Product Cost-Share: a Catalyst of the Trade Collapse," Working Paper Series 8015, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    8. Marc Auboin & Martina Engemann, 2014. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: evidence from data on export credit insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(4), pages 715-743, November.
    9. Banu Demir & Tomasz K. Michalski & Evren Ors, 2017. "Risk-Based Capital Requirements for Banks and International Trade," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(11), pages 3970-4002.
    10. Ariu, Andrea, 2016. "Crisis-proof services: Why trade in services did not suffer during the 2008–2009 collapse," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 138-149.
    11. Federico J. Diez & Jesse Mora & Alan C. Spearot, 2016. "Firms in international trade," Working Papers 16-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    12. Pavel Chakraborty, 2024. "Bank ownership and firm performance," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 238-267, January.
    13. Alok Johri & Terry Yip, 2015. "Financial Shocks, Customer Capital and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015-13, McMaster University, revised Sep 2015.
    14. Anna Watson, 2019. "Financial Frictions, the Great Trade Collapse and International Trade over the Business Cycle," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 19-64, February.
    15. Dimitra Petropoulou & Kwok Tong Soo, 2011. "Product Durability and Trade Volatility," Working Paper Series 2811, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    16. Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2019. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2691-2721.
    17. Mr. JaeBin Ahn, 2011. "A Theory of Domestic and International Trade Finance," IMF Working Papers 2011/262, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Felipe Benguria & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 509-526, December.
    19. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/55oar0vhn18ot8rb6sekvvcvt7 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Leibovici, Fernando & Waugh, Michael E., 2019. "International trade and intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 158-174.
    21. Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Global Trade and Specialisation Patterns Over the Next 50 Years," OECD Economic Policy Papers 10, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ems:euriss:104224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RePub The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask RePub to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/issssnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.