IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/5015.html

The trade response to global downturns : historical evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Freund, Caroline

Abstract

The author examines the impact of historical global downturns on trade flows. The results provide insight into why trade has dropped so dramatically in the current crisis, what is likely to happen in the coming years, how global imbalances are affected, and which regions and industries suffer most heavily. The author finds that the elasticity of global trade volumes to real world GDP has increased gradually from around 2 in the 1960s to above 3 now. The author also finds that trade is more responsive to GDP during global downturns than in tranquil times. The results suggest that the overall drop in real trade this year is likely to exceed 15 percent. There is significant variation across industries, with food and beverages the least affected and crude materials and fuels the most affected. On the positive side, trade tends to rebound very rapidly when the outlook brightens. The author also finds evidence that global downturns often lead to persistent improvements in the ratio of the trade balance to GDP in borrower countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Freund, Caroline, 2009. "The trade response to global downturns : historical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5015, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2009/08/06/000158349_20090806152233/Rendered/PDF/WPS5015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iacovone, Leonardo & Ferro, Esteban & Pereira-López, Mariana & Zavacka, Veronika, 2019. "Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 192-204.
    2. Kwack, Sung Yeung & Ahn, Choong Y. & Lee, Young S. & Yang, Doo Y., 2007. "Consistent estimates of world trade elasticities and an application to the effects of Chinese Yuan (RMB) appreciation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 314-330, April.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anna Watson, 2019. "Financial Frictions, the Great Trade Collapse and International Trade over the Business Cycle," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 19-64, February.
    2. Grover,Arti Goswami & Pereira Lopez,Mariana De La Paz, 2023. "Does Informality Depress Investments and Job Recovery ? Firm-Level Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis in South Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10580, The World Bank.
    3. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2010. "On the Brink of Deglobalization," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14122, June.
    4. Felipe Benguria & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 509-526, December.
    5. repec:ilo:ilowps:461897 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gamberoni, Elisa & Von Uexkull, Erik & Weber, Sebastian, 2010. "The Roles of Openness and Labor Market Institutions for Employment Dynamics during Economic Crises," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 29, pages 1-5, August.
    7. Guntram B. Wolff, 2012. "Are banks affected by their holdings of government debt?," Bruegel Working Papers 717, Bruegel.
    8. Klinger, Sabine & Spitznagel, Eugen & Alatalo, Johanna & Berglind, Karin & Gustavsson, Håkan & Kure, Hans & Nio, Ilkka & Salmins, Janis & Skuja, Vita & Sørbø, Johannes, 2012. "The labour markets in Finland, Germany, Latvia, Norway, and Sweden 2006-2010 : Developments and challenges for the future," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201207, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Estimating the shape of economic crises under heterogeneity," Kiel Working Papers 1520, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    10. Rojas, Eugenio & Saffie, Felipe, 2025. "A simple measure of Fisherian amplification with flow collateral constraints," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    11. Adrian Fernández-Pérez & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2025. "El Clasico of Housing: Bubbles in Madrid and Barcelona’s Real Estate Markets," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2025-03, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    12. Pais, Amelia & Stork, Philip A., 2011. "Contagion risk in the Australian banking and property sectors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 681-697, March.
    13. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    14. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.
    15. Pieter A. Gautier, 2009. "Coordination Frictions and The Financial Crisis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-028/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Ma, Chang, 2020. "Financial stability, growth and macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    17. Carina Burs, 2023. "A Model of Cycles and Bubbles under Heterogeneous Beliefs in Financial Markets," Working Papers CIE 154, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    18. Cumperayot, Phornchanok & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2013. "Early warning systems for currency crises: A multivariate extreme value approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 151-171.
    19. Pier Carlo Padoan, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in the Crisis: Impact, Sustainability, and Long-Term Implications," Working Papers id:3036, eSocialSciences.
    20. Kuzman, Tanja & Lazarevic, Jelisaveta & Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2022. "Capital flows liberalisation and macroprudential policies: The effects on credit cycles in emerging economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 602-619.
    21. Marc Hayford & Anastasios Malliaris, 2010. "Asset Prices and the Financial Crisis of 2007--09: An Overview of Theories and Policies," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 279-286, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.