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Global Value Chains in the Current Trade Slowdown

Author

Listed:
  • Ferrantino, Michael J.

    () (World Bank)

  • Taglioni, Daria

    () (World Bank)

Abstract

Real growth in global trade has decelerated significantly since its sharp recovery in 2010. Year-on-year growth in global real trade decelerated from 13.3 percent at the end of the first quarter of 2010, to 9.9, 3.1, and 0.5 percent at the end of the first quarters of 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively, while picking back up to 3.9 percent in the year leading up to the fourth quarter of 2013. This aggregate deceleration in global trade includes absolute declines in real trade for many product categories and regions. In the wake of the Great Trade Collapse of 2008–9, understanding of the behavior of trade in slowdowns has improved. Among the many explanations offered for the Great Trade Collapse, including explanations related to uncertainty, trade financing, and new protectionist measures by governments, there has been a significant focus on whether the emergence of global value chains (GVCs) in international trade, and their behavior, are a contributing factor in trade slowdowns.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrantino, Michael J. & Taglioni, Daria, 2014. "Global Value Chains in the Current Trade Slowdown," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 138, pages 1-6, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:prmecp:ep138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Escaith, Hubert & Lindenberg, Nannette & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2010. "International supply chains and trade elasticity in times of global crisis," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    2. Taglioni, Daria & Zavacka, Veronika, 2012. "Innocent bystanders : how foreign uncertainty shocks harm exporters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6226, The World Bank.
    3. di Mauro, Filippo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Vicard, Vincent & Altomonte, Carlo & Rungi, Armando, 2012. "Global value chains during the great trade collapse: a bullwhip effect?," Working Paper Series 1412, European Central Bank.
    4. repec:ebd:wpaper:148 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Evert Meijers & Martijn Burger & Masahisa Fujita & Nobuaki Hamaguchi, 2016. "Supply chain internationalization in East Asia: Inclusiveness and risks," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(1), pages 81-100, March.
    2. Peter H. Egger & Joseph Francois & Douglas R. Nelson, 2017. "The Role of Goods-Trade Networks for Services-Trade Volume," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 532-543, March.
    3. Gaulier, Guillaume & Sztulman, Aude & Ünal, Deniz, 2020. "Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 219-236.
    4. Borin, Alessandro & Mancini, Michele, 2017. "Follow the Value Added: Tracking Bilateral Relations in Global Value Chains," MPRA Paper 82692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    6. Marco Giansoldati & Tullio Gregori, 2018. "Trade Collapses and Trade Slowdowns: Evidence from Some Central and Eastern European Countries," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 16(1 (Spring), pages 3-18.
    7. Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2016. "Breaking down world trade elasticities: a panel ECM approach," Globalization Institute Working Papers 275, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 18 Jul 2016.
    8. Szypulewska-Porczyńska Alina & Suska Magdalena, 2020. "Fifteen years of Poland’s membership of the European Union: Poland’s participation in the internal market for services," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 56(1), pages 3-19, March.
    9. Cyrille Schwellnus & Andreas Kappeler & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2017. "The Decoupling of Median Wages from Productivity in OECD Countries," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 32, pages 44-60, Spring.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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