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Cross-border production chains and business cycle co-movement between Central and Eastern European countries and euro area member states

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  • Iossifov, Plamen

Abstract

In this paper, we highlight the role of global value chains in the synchronization of economic activity between countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the euro area. We start off by demonstrating that the degree of synchronization of the business cycles of CEE countries and their main trade partners from the euro area has increased in recent years. We next show that the cyclical fluctuations of GDP in CEE countries are strongly influenced by pro-cyclical movements of changes in inventories. We then present evidence of the importance of cross border production chains for the economies of CEE countries. We build on these findings to show that the propagation of changes in demand for imports along global supply chains JEL Classification: E32, F44, F62, O52

Suggested Citation

  • Iossifov, Plamen, 2014. "Cross-border production chains and business cycle co-movement between Central and Eastern European countries and euro area member states," Working Paper Series 1628, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141628
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1628.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
    2. Escaith, Hubert & Lindenberg, Nannette & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2010. "International supply chains and trade elasticity in times of global crisis," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    3. Hau L. Lee & V. Padmanabhan & Seungjin Whang, 2004. "Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1875-1886, December.
    4. Alessandria, George & Kaboski, Joseph & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2013. "Trade wedges, inventories, and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-20.
    5. Sonsoles Gallego & Sándor Gardó & Reiner Martin & Luis Molina & José María Serena, 2010. "The Impact of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis on Central Eastern and SouthEastern Europe (CESEE) and Latin America," Occasional Papers 1002, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    6. Gardó, Sándor & Martin, Reiner, 2010. "The impact of the global economic and financial crisis on central, eastern and south-eastern Europe: A stock-taking exercise," Occasional Paper Series 114, European Central Bank.
    7. Carlo Altomonte & Filippo Di Mauro & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Armando Rungi & Vincent Vicard, 2012. "Global Value Chains During the Great Trade Collapse: A Bullwhip Effect?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1131, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 371-375, May.
    9. Robert Koopman & William Powers & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains," NBER Working Papers 16426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Buelens, Christian & Tirpák, Marcel, 2017. "Reading the Footprints: how foreign investors shape countries' participation in global value chains," Working Paper Series 2060, European Central Bank.
    2. Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci & Carlo Pietrobelli, 2014. "International Linkages, Value Added Trade and LAC Firms' Productivity," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0198, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    3. repec:pal:compes:v:59:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1057_s41294-017-0036-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Rita Cappariello & Alberto Felettigh, 2015. "How does foreign demand activate domestic value added? A comparison among the largest euro-area economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1001, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. repec:eee:ecmode:v:74:y:2018:i:c:p:124-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Andrzej Cieslik & Jan Jakub Michalek & Krzysztof Szczygielski, 2019. "What matters for firms’ participation in Global Value Chains in Central and East European countries?," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(3), pages 481-502, September.
    7. Marcin Woźniak, 2015. "Can the Stochastic Equilibrium Job Search Models Fit Transition Economies?," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 65(4), pages 567-591, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; CEE; Central and Eastern European countries; cross-border production chains; global value chains; inventories;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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