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Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun’s law

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  • Menzie Chinn
  • Laurent Ferrara
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

This paper aims at investigating the relationship between employment and GDP in the United States. We disentangle trend and cyclical employment components by estimating a non-linear Okun’s law based on a smooth transition error-correction model that simultaneously accounts for long-term relationships between growth and employment and short-run instability over the business cycle. Our findings based on out-of-sample conditional forecasts show that, since the exit of the 2008-09 recession, US employment is on average around 1% below the level implied by the long run output-employment relationship, meaning that about 1.2 million of the trend employment loss cannot be attributed to the identified cyclical factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun’s law," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2013-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Miquel Clar-Lopez & Jordi López-Tamayo & Raúl Ramos, 2014. "Unemployment forecasts, time varying coefficient models and the Okun’s law in Spanish regions," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 247-262.
    2. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Labor Markets over Business Cycles: An International Comparison," Working Papers 2015/15, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    3. Luz A. Flórez & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2018. "Okun´s law in Colombia: a non-linear cointegration," Borradores de Economia 1039, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Jon D. Wisman & Aaron Pacitti, 2013. "Ending the Crisis With Guaranteed Employment and Retraining," Working Papers 2013-12, American University, Department of Economics.
    5. Ryan Herzog, 2013. "Using state level employment thresholds to explain Okun’s Law," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, December.
    6. Hogrefe, Jan & Sachs, Andreas, 2014. "Unemployment and labor reallocation in Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-083, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Okun’s law; trend employment; non-linear modeling;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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