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Post-Recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-Linear Okun's Law

  • Menzie Chinn
  • Laurent Ferrara
  • Valérie Mignon

Cet article étudie la relation entre l’emploi et le PIB aux Etats Unis. Nous distinguons entre composantes cyclique et permanente de l’emploi via l’estimation d’une loi d’Okun non linéaire basée sur un modèle à correction d’erreur à transition lisse tenant compte simultanément des relations de long terme entre l’emploi et le PIB et de l’instabilité de court terme liée au cycle économique. Nos résultats, basés sur des prévisions conditionnelles hors échantillon, montrent que, depuis la sortie de la récession de 2008-2009, l’emploi aux Etats Unis est, en moyenne, environ 1% au-dessous du niveau donné par la relation d’équilibre de long terme entre l’emploi et le PIB.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2013-13.

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Date of creation: May 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-13
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  15. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2014. "The way out of recessions: A forecasting analysis for some Euro area countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 539-549.
  16. Owyang, Michael T. & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2012. "Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 399-418.
  17. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2012. "The Asymmetric Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 208-221, February.
  18. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  19. Marcello M. Estevão & Evridiki Tsounta, 2011. "Has the Great Recession Raised U.S. Structural Unemployment?," IMF Working Papers 11/105, International Monetary Fund.
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