Un indicateur d'entrée et sortie de récession: application aux Etats-Unis
[A start-end recession index: Application for United-States]
This working paper presents a new coincident economic indicator developed by the COE, able to detect in real time peaks and troughs of the american business cycle. This probabilistic indicator is based on the Markov-Switching model proposed by Hamilton (1989), applied to various economic time series carefully chosen. The filtered probabilities stemming from these series are combined by taking into account the risks of false signals in order to provide a recession probability. This new indicator fruitfully completes the leading indicator IARC, released monthly by the COE, which aims at forecasting the fluctuations of the growth cycle. It is planned to apply this new indicator to the eurozone in the next future.
|Date of creation:||30 Jul 2002|
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Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
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- Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mizon, Grayham E., 2000.
"A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market,"
Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics
0105, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2002. "A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 233-254.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, . "A Markov-Switching Vector Equilibrium Correction Model of the UK Labour Market," Working Papers 185, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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