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Transmisión de los precios del arroz en Colombia y el mundo

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  • Troncoso Sepúlveda, Ricardo

Abstract

Resumen: El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la transmisión espacial de los precios del arroz en Colombia, haciendo énfasis en el impacto de las políticas comerciales. Con tal propósito, se utilizó un modelo Markov-switching vector error correction para modelar cambios de régimen en la relación entre los precios domésticos del arroz en Colombia y los precios internacionales de algunos países de control, desde enero de 1996 hasta septiembre de 2018. Los resultados revelan tres regímenes de transmisión de precios que coinciden con políticas comerciales internas y con la crisis alimentaria de 2007-2008. El régimen de volatilidad alta fue el más persistente, con una duración promedio de 15,4 meses, una probabilidad de transición de 93 % y una velocidad de ajuste de 0,24. Además, durante este régimen, Colombia estuvo menos integrada al mercado internacional del arroz. Estos resultados son relevantes en la medida en que constituyen la aplicación de una metodología por umbral al análisis de transmisión de precios agrícolas, y pueden ser útiles para el diseno de políticas agrarias que contribuyan a la integración y competitividad del sector arrocero colombiano. Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyse the spatial price transmission of rice in Colombia, emphasizing the impact of trade policies. For this purpose, a Markov-switching vector error correction model was used to model regime shifts in the relationship between domestic and international rice prices in Colombia and some control countries, from January 1996 to September 2018. The results reveal three price transmission regimes that coincide with internal trade policies and with the food crisis of 2007-2008. The high volatility regime was the most persistent, with an average duration of 15.4 months, a transition probability of 93 % and an adjustment speed of 0.24. In addition, during this regime, Colombia was less integrated into the international rice market. These results are relevant, since they constitute the application of a threshold methodology to the analysis of the transmission of agricultural prices and can be useful for the design of agrarian policies that contribute to the integration and competitiveness of the Colombian rice sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Troncoso Sepúlveda, Ricardo, 2019. "Transmisión de los precios del arroz en Colombia y el mundo," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 91, pages 151-179, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000174:017450
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    productos básicos agrícolas; transmisión de precios; política alimentaria; cointegración;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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