IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0508007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?

Author

Listed:
  • Valerie Cerra

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Sweta C. Saxena

    (University of Pittsburgh)

Abstract

Sweden represents an archetypal welfare state economy, with extensive government safety nets. Some scholars have attributed a decline in its per capita income ranking since 1970 to “eurosclerosis” or sluggish growth caused by distortionary policies. This paper argues rather, that the permanent loss in output following Sweden’s banking crisis in the early 1990s explains the decline in its per capita GDP ratings. The paper finds no macroeconomic evidence that welfare state policies have deterred growth. The results warn that empirical growth analyses should distinguish between trend output growth and permanent output loss associated, for example, with financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?," Macroeconomics 0508007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0508007
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0508/0508007.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 271-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy, 2002. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1189-1211, September.
    3. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
    4. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    5. Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini., 1991. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth? Theory and Evidence," Economics Working Papers 91-155, University of California at Berkeley.
    6. Hansson, Par & Henrekson, Magnus, 1994. "A New Framework for Testing the Effect of Government Spending on Growth and Productivity," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 81(3-4), pages 381-401, December.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 465-490.
    8. Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2004. "The Welfare State, Redistribution and the Economy, Reciprocal Altruism, Consumer Rivalry and Second Best," CESifo Working Paper Series 1234, CESifo.
    9. John McCallum & André Blais, 1987. "Government, special interest groups, and economic growth," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 3-18, January.
    10. Lahiri,Kajal & Moore,Geoffrey H. (ed.), 1993. "Leading Economic Indicators," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438582.
    11. Berndt, Ernst R & Hansson, Bengt, 1992. " Measuring the Contribution of Public Infrastructure Capital in Sweden," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(0), pages 151-168, Supplemen.
    12. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    13. Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa & Eve Caroli & Philippe Aghion, 1999. "Inequality and Economic Growth: The Perspective of the New Growth Theories," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1615-1660, December.
    14. Roland Bénabou, 1996. "Inequality and Growth," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 11-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
    16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    17. Berndt, Ernst & Hansson, Bengt, 1992. "Measuring the Contribution of Capital in Sweden," Working Paper Series 365, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    18. Chang-Jin Kim & Christian J. Murray, 2002. "Permanent and transitory components of recessions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183.
    19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, March.
    20. Assar Lindbeck, 1997. "The Swedish Experiment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1273-1319, September.
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10091 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886, December.
    23. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    24. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 95-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    27. Sala-I-Martin, X., 1992. "Public Welfare and Growth," Papers 666, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16041, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Nicola D. Coniglio & Francesco Prota, 2011. "Economic Crises and Regional Convergence in the EU: An Exploration of Facts, Theories and Policy Implications," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Vidal, Jean-François, 2010. "Crises et transformations du modèle social-démocrate suédois," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 8.
    4. Hardy, Bryan & Sever, Can, 2021. "Financial crises and innovation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Mevlut Tatliyer, 2017. "Inflation targeting and the need for a new central banking framework," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 512-539, October.
    6. Sever, Can, 2018. "The myth of economic recovery: The case of crises in neighboring countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 65-69.
    7. Arafet Hamida, 2018. "Currency Crises and Growth," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(3), pages 83-92, March.
    8. Susan Lund & Charles Roxburgh, 2010. "Debt and Deleveraging," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 11(2), pages 1-30, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Philip R. Gerson, 1998. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy Variables on Output Growth," IMF Working Papers 1998/001, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, April.
    3. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2006. "The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 281-303, May.
    4. Norman Gemmell, 2001. "Fiscal Policy in a Growth Framework," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-84, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
    6. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2006. "The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 281-303, May.
    7. Hammed Adetola Adefeso, 2016. "Productive Government Expenditure and Economic Performance in sub-Saharan Africa: An Empirical Investigation," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 19(2), pages 1-18, November.
    8. Shushanik Papanyan, 2015. "Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress," Working Papers 15/33, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    9. DAVID E. ALLEN & MICHAEL McALEER & ROBERT J. POWELL & ABHAY K. SINGH, 2018. "Non-Parametric Multiple Change Point Analysis Of The Global Financial Crisis," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-23, June.
    10. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    11. Nancy Birdsall, 2008. "Income Distribution: Effects on Growth and Development," Chapters, in: Amitava Krishna Dutt & Jaime Ros (ed.), International Handbook of Development Economics, Volumes 1 & 2, volume 0, chapter 48, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Kahn, James A. & Rich, Robert W., 2007. "Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1670-1701, September.
    13. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    14. Beraldo, Sergio & Montolio, Daniel & Turati, Gilberto, 2009. "Healthy, educated and wealthy: A primer on the impact of public and private welfare expenditures on economic growth," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 946-956, December.
    15. Morais, Igor Alexandre C. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2011. "Leading Indicators for the Capital Goods Industry," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 31(1), March.
    16. J. Polzehl & V. Spokoiny & C. Starica, 2004. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," Econometrics 0411017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
    18. Margit Schratzenstaller, 2007. "WIFO-Weißbuch: Wachstumsimpulse durch die öffentliche Hand," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 80(6), pages 509-526, June.
    19. Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
    20. Ross Stewart & Carlos Moslares, 2012. "Income inequality and economic growth: the case of Indian states 1980-2010," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Crisis; Welfare State; Sweden; Output Loss;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0508007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.