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The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy


  • Hogrefe, Jens


The yield spread is a well documented leading indicator of GDP growth. Estrella (2005) proposes a model to explain this relationship. Within the model, the leading properties of the yield spread are determined by the monetary policy. Accordingly, changes of the leading properties that have been reported in many studies should correspond to changes of the monetary policy. This paper analyzes whether and what form of time variation of the leading properties can be found in four major industrialized countries (France, Germany, the UK and the US). The results are connected with time varying behavior of the monetary policy by modeling a joint state dependency of the leading properties and the reaction parameters of the monetary policy. Time variation of the leading properties seem to exist in all countries under consideration. For the US and Germany they are best modeled as a structural break while France and the UK exhibit recurring phases. Evidence for a link between the time variations of the monetary policy and the leading properties can be found. However, a clear determination of the leading properties by the monetary policy cannot be confirmed.

Suggested Citation

  • Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:5585

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    leading indicator; yield spread; GDP growth; monetary policy; Markov-Switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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