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The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy


  • Hogrefe, Jens


The yield spread is a well documented leading indicator of GDP growth. Estrella (2005) proposes a model to explain this relationship. Within the model, the leading properties of the yield spread are determined by the monetary policy. Accordingly, changes of the leading properties that have been reported in many studies should correspond to changes of the monetary policy. This paper analyzes whether and what form of time variation of the leading properties can be found in four major industrialized countries (France, Germany, the UK and the US). The results are connected with time varying behavior of the monetary policy by modeling a joint state dependency of the leading properties and the reaction parameters of the monetary policy. Time variation of the leading properties seem to exist in all countries under consideration. For the US and Germany they are best modeled as a structural break while France and the UK exhibit recurring phases. Evidence for a link between the time variations of the monetary policy and the leading properties can be found. However, a clear determination of the leading properties by the monetary policy cannot be confirmed.

Suggested Citation

  • Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:5585

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
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    6. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    7. Kim, C.-J.Chang-Jin, 2004. "Markov-switching models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 127-136, September.
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    11. Favero, Carlo A. & Kaminska, Iryna & Söderström, Ulf, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and A Structural Interpretation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Katrin Wesche, 2003. "Monetary Policy in Europe: Evidence from Time-Varying Taylor Rules," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse21_2003, University of Bonn, Germany.
    13. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
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    17. Feroli Michael, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Information Content of the Yield Spread," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, September.
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    More about this item


    leading indicator; yield spread; GDP growth; monetary policy; Markov-Switching;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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