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Business Cycles, Technology and Exports

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Bogliacino
  • Dario Guarascio
  • Mario Pianta
  • Matteo Lucchese

Abstract

This article shows – on both conceptual and empirical grounds - the importance of business cycles in affecting key relationships between innovation and international performance. While periods of upswing are characterized by a well-documented 'virtuous circle' between innovation inputs, new products and export success, during downswings most of the positive relationships and feedbacks tend to break down. The findings of Guarascio et al. (2014) on the long-term relationships between R&D, new products and exports are confirmed and qualified with major novelties. But when the period of analysis is split between periods of upswing and downswing - following Lucchese and Pianta (2012) – significantly different relationships emerge. The empirical test is carried out for the period 1995-2010 at the industry level, on 21 manufacturing and 17 service sectors; country coverage includes Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, representing a very large part of the European economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Bogliacino & Dario Guarascio & Mario Pianta & Matteo Lucchese, 2015. "Business Cycles, Technology and Exports," Documentos de Trabajo, Escuela de Economía 12974, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000178:012974
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    Cited by:

    1. Heredia Pérez, Jorge A. & Geldes, Cristian & Kunc, Martin H. & Flores, Alejandro, 2019. "New approach to the innovation process in emerging economies: The manufacturing sector case in Chile and Peru," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 35-55.
    2. Nascia, Leopoldo & Pianta, Mario, 2018. "Research and innovation policy in Italy," MPRA Paper 89510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Castellacci, Fulvio & Natera, Jose Miguel, 2016. "Innovation, absorptive capacity and growth heterogeneity: Development paths in Latin America 1970–2010," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 27-42.
    4. Francesco Bogliacino & Dario Guarascio & Valeria Cirillo, 2015. "Where Does the Surplus Go? Disentangling the Capital-Labor Distributive Conflict," Documentos de Trabajo, Escuela de Economía 13535, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    5. Cristiano Antonelli & Christophe Feder, 2021. "The Schumpeterian creative response: export and innovation: evidence for OECD countries 1995–2015," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(3), pages 803-821, October.
    6. Mariacristina Piva & Marco Vivarelli, 2018. "Technological change and employment: is Europe ready for the challenge?," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(1), pages 13-32, March.
    7. Francesco Bogliacino & Dario Guarascio & Valeria Cirillo, 2018. "The dynamics of profits and wages: technology, offshoring and demand," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(8), pages 778-808, September.
    8. Francesco Crespi & Dario Guarascio, 2019. "The demand-pull effect of public procurement on innovation and industrial renewal," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 28(4), pages 793-815.
    9. Coveri, Andrea & Pianta, Mario, 2022. "Drivers of inequality: wages vs. profits in European industries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 230-242.
    10. Emanuele Brancati & Raffaele Brancati & Dario Guarascio & Andrea Maresca & Manuel Romagnoli & Antonello Zanfei, 2018. "Firm-level Drivers of Export Performance and External Competitiveness in Italy," European Economy - Discussion Papers 087, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Andrea Coveri & Mario Pianta, 2019. "The Structural Dynamics of Income Distribution:Technology, Wages and Profits," Working Papers 1901, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2019.
    12. Bramucci, Alessandro, 2016. "Offshoring, employment and wages," IPE Working Papers 71/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    13. Bramucci, Alessandro & Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario, 2021. "Offshoring, industry heterogeneity and employment11This paper is the research outcome of two projects: the ISIGrowth project on Innovation-fuelled, Sustainable, Inclusive Growth funded by the European," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 400-411.
    14. Alessandro Bramucci, 2015. "Offshoring, Employment and Wages Abstract: This paper reviews the debate on the economic effect of the international fragmentation of production also known as ?offshoring? and provides a preliminary i," Working Papers 1506, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2015.
    15. Valeria Cirillo & Mario Pianta & Leopoldo Nascia, 2018. "Technology and Occupations in Business Cycles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, February.
    16. Dario Guarascio & Mario Pianta & Francesco Bogliacino, 2017. "Export, R&D and New Products: A Model and a Test on European Industries," Economic Complexity and Evolution, in: Andreas Pyka & Uwe Cantner (ed.), Foundations of Economic Change, pages 393-432, Springer.
    17. Ascensión Barajas & Elena Huergo & Lourdes Moreno, 2021. "The role of public loans in financing business R&D through the economic cycle," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 505-538, July.
    18. Francesco Lamperti & Franco Malerba & Roberto Mavilia & Giorgio Tripodi, 2019. "Does the Position in the Inter-sectoral Knowledge Space affect the International Competitiveness of Industries?," LEM Papers Series 2019/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    19. Mario Pianta & Andrea Coveri & Jelena Reljic, 2021. "The Sectoral Innovation Database, 1994-2016.Methodological Notes," Working Papers 2101, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2021.
    20. Jelena Reljic & Rinaldo Evangelista & Mario Pianta, 2025. "Digital technologies, employment, and skills," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 34(3), pages 385-406.
    21. Bramucci, Alessandro & Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario, 2017. "Offshoring, industry heterogeneity and employment," IPE Working Papers 88/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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