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Business Cycles, Technology and Exports

Author

Listed:
  • Dario Guarascio
  • Mario Pianta
  • Matteo Lucchese
  • Francesco Bogliacino

Abstract

This article shows -on both conceptual and empirical grounds- the importance of business cycles in affecting key relationships between innovation and international performance. While periods of upswing are characterised by a well documented "virtuous circle" between innovation inputs, new products and export success, during downswings most of the positive relationships and feedbacks tend to break down. The findings of Guarascio et al. (2014) on the long-term relationships between R&D, new products and exports are confirmed and qualified with major novelties. But when the period of analysis is split between periods of upswing and downswing -following Lucchese and Pianta (2012)- significantly different relationships emerge. These results are obtained through an approach that combines several complementary perspectives. A Schumpeterian view on the diversity of technological change allows to disentangle the specificities and effects of innovation inputs and outputs, and of new products and new processes. A structural change perspective on the role of demand as a driver of innovation and on the importance of open economies allows to link industries' dynamics with international competitiveness. A business cycle perspective crossing the two previous appraoches sheds new light on the fragility of key economic relationships and on the long term damage that recessions may cause to the "virtuous circle" of innovation and performance. The model we propose links exports, R&D and innovation success in a system of three simultaneous equations allowing for the presence of feedbacks loops among key variables. The empirical test is carried out for the period 1995-2010 at the industry level, on 21 manufacturing and 17 service sectors; country coverage includes Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, representing a very large part of the European economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Guarascio & Mario Pianta & Matteo Lucchese & Francesco Bogliacino, 2015. "Business Cycles, Technology and Exports," LEM Papers Series 2015/15, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2015/15
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    13. Emanuele Brancati & Raffaele Brancati & Dario Guarascio & Andrea Maresca & Manuel Romagnoli & Antonello Zanfei, 2018. "Firm-level Drivers of Export Performance and External Competitiveness in Italy," European Economy - Discussion Papers 087, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Andrea Coveri & Mario Pianta, 2019. "The Structural Dynamics of Income Distribution:Technology, Wages and Profits," Working Papers 1901, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2019.
    15. Bramucci, Alessandro & Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario, 2021. "Offshoring, industry heterogeneity and employment11This paper is the research outcome of two projects: the ISIGrowth project on Innovation-fuelled, Sustainable, Inclusive Growth funded by the European," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 400-411.
    16. Valeria Cirillo & Mario Pianta & Leopoldo Nascia, 2018. "Technology and Occupations in Business Cycles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, February.
    17. Bramucci, Alessandro & Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario, 2017. "Offshoring, industry heterogeneity and employment," IPE Working Papers 88/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    18. Jelena Reljic & Rinaldo Evangelista & Mario Pianta, 2019. "Digital technologies, employment and skills," LEM Papers Series 2019/36, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    19. Nascia, Leopoldo & Pianta, Mario, 2018. "Research and innovation policy in Italy," MPRA Paper 89510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Bramucci, Alessandro, 2016. "Offshoring, employment and wages," IPE Working Papers 71/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Innovation; Export; Three Stage Least Squares;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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