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Forecast Errors in Undisclosed Management Sales Forecasts: The Disappearance of the Overoptimism Bias

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  • Müller, Hans Christian

Abstract

Previous empirical evidence which evaluated the accuracy of management earnings or sales forecasts consistently revealed these forecasts to be on average significantly overoptimistic. However, all studies analyzed forecasts from public disclosures, which are an important signal to investors and analysts and thus likely biased by strategic considerations. To disentagle, whether and to which extent strategic deception or cognitive biases are resposible for this overoptimism, the present study analyzes the accuracy of 6,276 undisclosed, company-internal sales forecasts, which German firms provided anonymously to the IAB Establishment Panel. Quite surprisingly, the study reveals the average forecast to be significantly overpessimistic. I propose that the non-existence of a general bias towards overoptimism is due to the lack of incentives to consciously overgloss future prospects in undisclosed forecasts and that overpessimism may be a consequence of loss aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Müller, Hans Christian, 2011. "Forecast Errors in Undisclosed Management Sales Forecasts: The Disappearance of the Overoptimism Bias," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48683, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc11:48683
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    7. Brown, Philip & Clarke, Alex & How, Janice C. Y. & Lim, Kadir, 2000. "The accuracy of management dividend forecasts in Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 309-331, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Onkal, Dilek, 2015. "Information use in supply chain forecasting," MPRA Paper 66034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.
    3. Stühmeier Torben & Wenzel Tobias, 2012. "Regulating Advertising in the Presence of Public Service Broadcasting," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-23, June.
    4. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen & Hristov, Atanas, 2017. "Surprise, surprise – Measuring firm-level investment innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 107-148.
    5. Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Önkal, Dilek, 2019. "Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 144-156.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Management forecasts; Overoptimism; Overpessimism; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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