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Contract breach with overconfident expectations: Experimental evidence on reference-dependent preferences

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  • Fischer, Sabine
  • Grosch, Kerstin

Abstract

This study examines the effect of agents' overconfident expectations in their production on their contract breach. Drawing on a reference-dependent framework, we theoretically deduce propositions for compliance to agreements where an agent exhibits overconfidence and loss aversion. We further conduct a lab experiment with a multiple-stage design and find that overconfident agents are more likely to breach the contract than non-overconfident agents. Moreover, overconfident agents breach more often and to a greater extent with increasing loss aversion. We also test the impact of a non-deterministic environment (“shock condition”) where payoff misestimation can be masked compared to a deterministic environment (“no-shock condition”). Agents breach more often in the shock condition, but breach extent remains unaffected. Results are mostly in line with the theoretical framework. In a treatment, we manipulate agents' overconfidence exogenously and use it as an instrument to establish causality.

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer, Sabine & Grosch, Kerstin, 2025. "Contract breach with overconfident expectations: Experimental evidence on reference-dependent preferences," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 145-163.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:153:y:2025:i:c:p:145-163
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.05.012
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    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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