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The Value Relevance of Management Forecasts and Their Impact on Analysts' Forecasts: Empirical Evidence From Japan

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  • KOJI OTA

Abstract

A major financial disclosure feature in Japan is that stock exchanges require firms to provide next year's earnings forecasts. This study investigates the value relevance of Japanese management earnings forecasts and their impact on analysts' earnings forecasts. First, the value relevance of management forecasts is investigated using a valuation framework provided by Ohlson (2001), in which firm value is expressed as a function of book value, current earnings and next year's expected earnings. The analysis yields that of the three accounting variables examined, management forecasts have the highest correlation and incremental explanatory power with stock price. Next, the impact of management forecasts on analysts' forecasts is examined. The results show that more than 90% of changes in analysts' forecasts are explained by management forecasts alone. Further analysis reveals that the heavy dependence of financial analysts on management forecasts in formulating their own forecasts may partially be attributed to the relatively high accuracy of management forecasts. At the same time, financial analysts also somewhat modify management forecasts when certain financial factors indicate that the credibility of management forecasts is in doubt. Overall, this study presents empirical evidence that Japanese management forecasts provide useful information for the market and have a significant influence on analysts' forecasts.

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  • Koji Ota, 2010. "The Value Relevance of Management Forecasts and Their Impact on Analysts' Forecasts: Empirical Evidence From Japan," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 46(1), pages 28-59, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:abacus:v:46:y:2010:i:1:p:28-59
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6281.2009.00299.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Takuma Kochiyama & Ryosuke Nakamura & Akinobu Shuto, 2021. "How do bank lenders use borrowers’ financial statements? Evidence from a survey of Japanese banks," CARF F-Series CARF-F-522, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    3. Dhiaa Shamki, 2012. "Impact of Non Accounting Information on The Value Relevance of Accounting Information: The Case of Jordan," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 2(1), pages 9-24, February.
    4. Schaberl, Philipp D., 2016. "Beyond accounting and back: An empirical examination of the relative relevance of earnings and “other” information," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 98-113.
    5. Shota Otomasa & Atsushi Shiiba & Akinobu Shuto, 2015. "Management Earnings Forecasts as a Performance Target in Executive Compensation Contracts," CARF F-Series CARF-F-368, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    6. Goto, Shingo & Yanase, Noriyoshi, 2021. "Pension return assumptions and shareholder-employee risk-shifting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Iwasaki, Takuya & Kitagawa, Norio & Shuto, Akinobu, 2023. "Managerial discretion over initial earnings forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Sakawa, Hideaki & Watanabel, Naoki & Gu, Junjian, 2022. "Internationalization and the reliance of analyst forecasts in stakeholder-oriented corporate governance: Evidence from Japanese MNEs," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Yi Dong & Nan Hu & Xu Li & Ling Liu, 2017. "Analyst Firm Coverage and Forecast Accuracy: The Effect of Regulation Fair Disclosure," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(4), pages 450-484, December.
    10. Müller, Hans Christian, 2011. "Forecast Errors in Undisclosed Management Sales Forecasts: The Disappearance of the Overoptimism Bias," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48683, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Heather Anderson & Howard Chan & Robert Faff & Yew Kee Ho, 2012. "Reported earnings and analyst forecasts as competing sources of information: A new approach," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(3), pages 333-359, December.
    12. Takuya Iwasaki & Norio Kitagawa & Akinobu Shuto, 2013. "Managerial Discretion over Their Initial Earnings Forecasts," Discussion Paper Series DP2013-31, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    13. Norio Kitagawa & Akinobu Shuto, 2013. "Credibility of Management Earnings Forecasts and Future Returns," Discussion Paper Series DP2013-30, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    14. Ota, Koji & Lau, David & Kawase, Hironori, 2022. "Signal strength adjustment behavior: Evidence from share repurchases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Ota, Koji & Kawase, Hironori & Lau, David, 2019. "Does reputation matter? Evidence from share repurchases," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 287-306.
    16. Norio Kitagawa & Shin' ya Okuda, 2013. "Management Forecasts, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Information Environment," Discussion Papers 2013-38, Kobe University, Graduate School of Business Administration, revised Jul 2013.
    17. Kitagawa, Norio & Okuda, Shin’ya, 2016. "Management Forecasts, Idiosyncratic Risk, and the Information Environment," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 487-503.
    18. Takuya Iwasaki & Norio Kitagawa & Akinobu Shuto, 2012. "Managerial discretion over initial earnings forecasts “Forthcoming in Pacific-Basin Finance Journalâ€," CARF F-Series CARF-F-369, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Nov 2022.
    19. Koji Ota, 2012. "Information Content of Analysts' Stock Ratings and Earnings Forecasts in the Presence of Management Earnings Forecasts," The Japanese Accounting Review, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, vol. 2, pages 87-116, December.
    20. Kitagawa, Norio, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and management forecast accuracy," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3).
    21. SUZUKI, Tomohiro & TAKASU, Yusuke, 2013. "Does Management Forecast Drive Growth of the Firm?," Working Paper Series 172, Center for Japanese Business Studies (HJBS), Graduate School of Commerce and Management Hitotsubashi University.
    22. Norio Kitagawa & Akinobu Shuto, 2015. "Credibility of management earnings forecasts and future returns," CARF F-Series CARF-F-367, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    23. Millicent Chang & Andrew B. Jackson & Marvin Wee, 2018. "A review of research on regulation changes in the Asia‐Pacific region," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(3), pages 635-667, September.
    24. Muramiya, Katsuhiko & Takada, Tomomi, 2017. "A research note: Quality of financial inputs and management earnings forecast accuracy in Japan," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 179-191.

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