Credibility of Management Earnings Forecasts and Future Returns
This study investigates the effect of managerial discretion over their initial earnings forecasts on future performance. First, by estimating the discretionary portion of initial management earnings forecasts (defined as discretionary forecasts) based on the findings of fundamental analysis research, we find that firms with higher discretionary forecasts are more likely to miss their earnings forecast at the end of the fiscal year and revise their forecasts downward to meet their earnings forecasts for the period, suggesting that forecast management through discretionary forecasting produces less credible management forecasts in terms of ex-post realization. Second, by using the hedge-portfolio test and regression analysis, we find that firms with higher discretionary forecasts earn consistently negative abnormal returns, suggesting that investors do not fully understand the implication of discretionary forecasts for the credibility of management earnings forecasts and thus overprice them at the forecast announcement.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2-1 Rokkodai, Nada, Kobe 657-8501 JAPAN|
Phone: +81-(0)78 803 7036
Fax: +81-(0)78 803 7059
Web page: http://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/index-e.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Amy P. Hutton & Gregory S. Miller & Douglas J. Skinner, 2003. "The Role of Supplementary Statements with Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 867-890, December.
- Xu, Weihong, 2010. "Do management earnings forecasts incorporate information in accruals?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 227-246, April.
- Collins, Daniel W. & Hribar, Paul, 2000. "Earnings-based and accrual-based market anomalies: one effect or two?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 101-123, February.
- Mitchell A. Petersen, 2005.
"Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches,"
NBER Working Papers
11280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
- Arthur Kraft & Andrew J. Leone & Charles Wasley, 2006. "An Analysis of the Theories and Explanations Offered for the Mispricing of Accruals and Accrual Components," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 297-339, 05.
- Khan, Mozaffar, 2008. "Are accruals mispriced Evidence from tests of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 55-77, March.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
- Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G. & Soliman, Mark T. & Tuna, Irem, 2005. "Accrual reliability, earnings persistence and stock prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 437-485, September.
- Joshua Livnat & Richard R. Mendenhall, 2006. "Comparing the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift for Surprises Calculated from Analyst and Time Series Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 177-205, 03.
- Bartov, Eli & Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2002. "The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-204, June.
- Ball, Ray & Bartov, Eli, 1996. "How naive is the stock market's use of earnings information?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 319-337, June.
- Koji Ota, 2010. "The Value Relevance of Management Forecasts and Their Impact on Analysts' Forecasts: Empirical Evidence From Japan," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 46(1), pages 28-59.
- Jin (Ginger) Wu & Lu Zhang & X. Frank Zhang, 2010. "The "q"-Theory Approach to Understanding the Accrual Anomaly," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 177-223, 03.
- Lawrence D. Brown & Arianna Spina Pinello, 2007. "To What Extent Does the Financial Reporting Process Curb Earnings Surprise Games?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 947-981, December.
- Markus Leippold & Harald Lohre, 2012. "Data snooping and the global accrual anomaly," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(7), pages 509-535, April.
- Frankel, Richard & Lee, Charles M. C., 1998. "Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-319, June.
- Takuya Iwasaki & Norio Kitagawa & Akinobu Shuto, 2013. "Managerial Discretion over Their Initial Earnings Forecasts," Discussion Paper Series DP2013-31, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
- Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
- Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
- Conroy, Robert M. & Harris, Robert S. & Park, Young S., 1998. "Fundamental information and share prices in Japan: evidence from earnings surprises and management predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-244, June.
- Frost, Carol A., 1997. "Disclosure policy choices of UK firms receiving modified audit reports," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 163-187, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2013-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Office of Promoting Research Collaboration, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.