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Do management earnings forecasts incorporate information in accruals?

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  • Xu, Weihong

Abstract

I investigate whether management earnings forecasts fully reflect the implications of accruals for future earnings. I find that managers overestimate accrual persistence in range forecasts but not in point forecasts and that managers' accrual-related forecast bias in range forecasts increases with forecast range and forecast horizon. My results suggest that managers overestimate accrual persistence when faced with greater difficulty forecasting earnings. Moreover, I find that managers' accrual-related forecast bias in range forecasts is somewhat affected by managerial opportunism and fear of litigation. Finally, I find accrual mispricing for firms issuing range forecasts but not for firms issuing point forecasts.

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  • Xu, Weihong, 2010. "Do management earnings forecasts incorporate information in accruals?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 227-246, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:49:y:2010:i:3:p:227-246
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    3. Iwasaki, Takuya & Kitagawa, Norio & Shuto, Akinobu, 2023. "Managerial discretion over initial earnings forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Chung, Yu-Hsuan & Pan, Lee-Hsien & Huang, Shaio Yan & Chen, K.C., 2015. "Do firms change earnings management behavior after receiving financial forecast warnings?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Norio Kitagawa & Akinobu Shuto, 2013. "Credibility of Management Earnings Forecasts and Future Returns," Discussion Paper Series DP2013-30, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    6. Vahid Biglari & Ervina Binti Alfan & Rubi Binti Ahmad & Najmeh Hajian, 2013. "The Ability of Analysts' Recommendations to Predict Optimistic and Pessimistic Forecasts," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-10, October.
    7. Sun, Yan & Xu, Weihong, 2012. "The role of accounting conservatism in management forecast bias," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 64-77.
    8. Stephen Baginski & Elizabeth Demers & Chong Wang & Julia Yu, 2016. "Contemporaneous verification of language: evidence from management earnings forecasts," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 165-197, March.
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    10. Norio Kitagawa & Akinobu Shuto, 2015. "Credibility of management earnings forecasts and future returns," CARF F-Series CARF-F-367, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    11. Ming‐Chang Wang & Yu‐Jia Ding, 2021. "Does the quarterly accrual anomaly exist in Taiwan's stock market? Evidence from Manager's earnings management," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 688-701, April.
    12. Lu Xing & Tinghua Duan & Wenxuan Hou, 2019. "Do Board Secretaries Influence Management Earnings Forecasts?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 537-574, January.
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