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Bundled forecasts in empirical accounting research

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  • Rogers, Jonathan L.
  • Van Buskirk, Andrew

Abstract

This paper examines “bundled” forecasts, or management earnings forecasts issued concurrently with earnings announcements, which have evolved to become the most common type of management forecast. We describe the econometric problems associated with measuring bundled forecast news and, in particular, provide evidence that the measurement error in the traditional calculation of forecast news is material and is systematically associated with variables frequently studied in forecast-related research. We illustrate an application of conditional expectations to overcome these problems. Finally, we offer guidance and caveats to researchers considering the use of this method in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Rogers, Jonathan L. & Van Buskirk, Andrew, 2013. "Bundled forecasts in empirical accounting research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-65.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:55:y:2013:i:1:p:43-65
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2012.06.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:jfinec:v:125:y:2017:i:1:p:143-162 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:advacc:v:38:y:2017:i:c:p:113-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jae B. Kim, 2016. "Accounting flexibility and managers’ forecast behavior prior to seasoned equity offerings," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1361-1400, December.
    4. Billings, Mary Brooke & Jennings, Robert & Lev, Baruch, 2015. "On guidance and volatility," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 161-180.
    5. Billings, Mary Brooke & Cedergren, Matthew C., 2015. "Strategic silence, insider selling and litigation risk," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 119-142.
    6. Shota Otomasa & Atsushi Shiiba & Akinobu Shuto, 2015. "Management Earnings Forecasts as a Performance Target in Executive Compensation Contracts," CARF F-Series CARF-F-368, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    7. Kenneth Froot & Namho Kang & Gideon Ozik & Ronnie Sadka, 2016. "What Do Measures of Real-time Corporate Sales Tell Us about Earnings Surprises and Post-Announcement Returns?," NBER Working Papers 22366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Benjamin Segal & Dan Segal, 2016. "Are managers strategic in reporting non-earnings news? Evidence on timing and news bundling," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1203-1244, December.
    9. Tang, Michael & Zarowin, Paul & Zhang, Li, 2015. "How do analysts interpret management range forecasts?," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 48-66.
    10. Takuya Iwasaki & Norio Kitagawa & Akinobu Shuto, 2015. "Managerial discretion over initial earnings forecasts," CARF F-Series CARF-F-369, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    11. Michaely, Roni & Rubin, Amir & Vedrashko, Alexander, 2016. "Further evidence on the strategic timing of earnings news: Joint analysis of weekdays and times of day," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 24-45.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Management forecasts; Conference calls; Reg FD; Earnings announcements;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • M40 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - General
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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