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Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts

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  • Hilary, Gilles
  • Hsu, Charles

Abstract

We examine whether attribution bias leads managers who have experienced short-term forecasting success to become overconfident in their ability to forecast future earnings. Importantly, this form of overconfidence is endogenous and dynamic. We also examine the effect of this cognitive bias on the managerial credibility. Consistent with the existence of dynamic overconfidence, managers who have predicted earnings accurately in the previous four quarters are less accurate in their subsequent earnings predictions. These managers also display greater divergence from the analyst consensus and are more precise. Lastly, investors and analysts react less strongly to forecasts issued by overconfident managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilary, Gilles & Hsu, Charles, 2011. "Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 300-313, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:51:y:2011:i:3:p:300-313
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Iatridis, George Emmanuel, 2016. "Financial reporting language in financial statements: Does pessimism restrict the potential for managerial opportunism?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-17.
    2. repec:spr:scient:v:111:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-017-2371-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Yi Tang & Cuili Qian & Guoli Chen & Rui Shen, 2015. "How CEO hubris affects corporate social (ir)responsibility," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1338-1357, September.
    4. Irene Wei Kiong Ting & Hooi Hooi Lean & Qian Long Kweh & Noor Azlinna Azizan, 2016. "Managerial overconfidence, government intervention and corporate financing decision," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 4-24, February.
    5. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    6. Mike Dempsey, 2014. "The Modigliani and Miller Propositions: The History of a Failed Foundation for Corporate Finance?," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 50(3), pages 279-295, September.
    7. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    8. Hilary, Gilles & Hsu, Charles & Segal, Benjamin & Wang, Rencheng, 2016. "The bright side of managerial over-optimism," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 46-64.
    9. Rogers, Jonathan L. & Van Buskirk, Andrew, 2013. "Bundled forecasts in empirical accounting research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-65.

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