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Zur Wertrelevanz freiwilliger Managementprognosen in Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Thorsten Knauer

    (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster)

  • Christian Ledwig

    (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster)

  • Andreas Wömpener

    (Universität Duisburg-Essen)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Prognosen des Managements können wesentliche Informationen für die Unternehmensbewertung beinhalten und werden von Analysten und Investoren mit besonderem Interesse aufgenommen. Dieser Beitrag analysiert die Wertrelevanz freiwilliger Managementprognosen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Prognosepräzision, der zuvor berichteten verpflichtenden Prognosen, des deutschen Haftungsumfelds sowie der R ichtung der Prognosen anhand der Unternehmen des CDAX der Jahre 2007 bis 2010. Die Ergebnisse dieser Untersuchung unterstreichen die Wertrelevanz von Managementprognosen und zeigen, dass das Ausmaß der Investorenreaktion mit zunehmender P rognosepräzision tendenziell zunimmt. Die Kapitalmarktreaktion hängt dabei unmittelbar mit dem zeitlichen A bstand und der P räzision der verpflichtenden P rognosepublizität zusammen. Ferner führt das schwächere Haftungsumfeld des deutschen Kapitalmarkts dazu, dass freiwillige Vorhersagen mit einem G laubwürdigkeitsdefizit belegt sind. A ußerdem reagieren Investoren auf negative Managementprognosen stärker als auf positive (asymmetrisches Reaktionsprofil).

Suggested Citation

  • Thorsten Knauer & Christian Ledwig & Andreas Wömpener, 2012. "Zur Wertrelevanz freiwilliger Managementprognosen in Deutschland," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 166-204, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:64:y:2012:i:2:d:10.1007_bf03372865
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03372865
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    G12; G18; M41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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