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Business Cycle Asymmetries and the Labor Market

Listed author(s):
  • Merkl, Christian
  • Kohlbrecher, Britta

This paper shows that the matching function and the Beveridge curve in the United States exhibit strong nonlinearities over the business cycle. These patterns can be replicated by enhancing a search and matching model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks for new contacts. Large negative aggregate shocks move the hiring cutoff point into a part of the idiosyncratic density function with higher density and thereby generate large, asymmetric job-finding rate and unemployment reactions. Our proposed mechanism is of high relevance as it leads to time varying effects of certain policy interventions.

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File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/145704/1/VfS_2016_pid_6689.pdf
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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change with number 145704.

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Date of creation: 2016
Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145704
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/
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  1. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
  2. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
  3. Brown, Alessio & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis, 2015. "An Incentive Theory Of Matching," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 643-668, April.
  4. Sanjay K. Chugh & Wolfgang Lechthalerz & Christian Merkl, 2015. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Labor Selection," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 884, Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
  6. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Nordmeier, Daniela, 2016. "Revisiting the matching function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 350-374.
  7. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
  8. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
  9. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2005. "Tests for Skewness, Kurtosis, and Normality for Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 49-60, January.
  10. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
  11. Hochmuth, Brigitte & Gartner, Hermann & Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian, 2016. "Labor selection over the business cycle: An empirical assessment," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2016, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
  12. Simon Mongey & Gianluca Violante & Alessandro Gavazza, 2014. "What Shifts the Beveridge Curve? Recruitment Effort and Financial Shocks," 2014 Meeting Papers 1014, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Domenico Ferraro, 2014. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," 2014 Meeting Papers 1104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Simon Mongey & Gianluca Violante & Alessandro Gavazza, 2015. "What Shifts the Beveridge Curve? Recruiting Intensity and Financial Shocks," 2015 Meeting Papers 1079, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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