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Non-Linear Employment Effects of Tax Policy

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Abstract

We study the non-linear propagation mechanism of tax policy in a heterogeneous agent equilibrium business cycle model with search frictions in the labor market and an extensive margin of employment adjustment. The model exhibits endogenous job destruction and endogenous hiring standards in the form of occasionally-binding zero-surplus constraints. After parameterizing the model using U.S. data, we find that the dynamic response of employment to a temporary change in the labor income tax is highly non-linear, displaying sizable asymmetries and state-dependence. Notably, the response to a tax rate cut is at least twice as large in a recession as in an expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Ferraro & Giuseppe Fiori, 2021. "Non-Linear Employment Effects of Tax Policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1333, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1333
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2021.1333
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
    3. Joshua Bernstein & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2025. "The Matching Function and Nonlinear Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(2-3), pages 349-376, March.
    4. Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2024. "When are tax multipliers large?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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