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Explaining refugee flows. Understanding the 2015 European refugee crisis through a real options lens

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  • Linda Peters
  • Peter-Jan Engelen
  • Danny Cassimon

Abstract

In 2015 the unprecedented arrival of refugees in Europe posed serious challenges for the EU and its member countries on how to deal with such an influx. A key element in better managing refugee flows is to understand what drives these flows in a certain direction. A refugee who comes to Europe has to make trade-offs in terms of cost and benefits, duration, uncertainty and the multi-staged character of the journey. Real options models are a suitable tool for modelling these kind of decision dynamics. On the basis of a case-study, that compares three routes from Syria to Europe, we demonstrate how well the real options analysis is in line with the development of the refugee flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Linda Peters & Peter-Jan Engelen & Danny Cassimon, 2023. "Explaining refugee flows. Understanding the 2015 European refugee crisis through a real options lens," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(4), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0284390
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0284390
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    References listed on IDEAS

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