IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0284390.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explaining refugee flows. Understanding the 2015 European refugee crisis through a real options lens

Author

Listed:
  • Linda Peters
  • Peter-Jan Engelen
  • Danny Cassimon

Abstract

In 2015 the unprecedented arrival of refugees in Europe posed serious challenges for the EU and its member countries on how to deal with such an influx. A key element in better managing refugee flows is to understand what drives these flows in a certain direction. A refugee who comes to Europe has to make trade-offs in terms of cost and benefits, duration, uncertainty and the multi-staged character of the journey. Real options models are a suitable tool for modelling these kind of decision dynamics. On the basis of a case-study, that compares three routes from Syria to Europe, we demonstrate how well the real options analysis is in line with the development of the refugee flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Linda Peters & Peter-Jan Engelen & Danny Cassimon, 2023. "Explaining refugee flows. Understanding the 2015 European refugee crisis through a real options lens," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(4), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0284390
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0284390
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0284390
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0284390&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0284390?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    3. Erhan Artuc & Caglar Ozden, 2018. "Transit Migration: All Roads Lead to America," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(612), pages 306-334, July.
    4. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Locher, Lilo, 2001. "Testing for the Option Value of Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 405, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Burda, Michael C., 1993. "The determinants of East-West German migration: Some first results," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 452-461, April.
    7. Cassimon, D. & De Backer, M. & Engelen, P.J. & Van Wouwe, M. & Yordanov, V., 2011. "Incorporating technical risk in compound real option models to value a pharmaceutical R&D licensing opportunity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1200-1216.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2008. "Migration dynamics," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 93(3), pages 223-265, April.
    2. Sergio Vergalli, 2008. "The Role of Community in Migration Dynamics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(3), pages 547-567, September.
    3. Linguère Mbaye, 2014. "“Barcelona or die”: understanding illegal migration from Senegal," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Sergio Vergalli, 2011. "Entry and Exit Strategies in Migration Dynamics," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 362-389, December.
    5. Lutz Schneider & Alexander Kubis, 2010. "Are there Gender-specific Preferences for Location Factors? A Grouped Conditional Logit-Model of Interregional Migration Flows in Germany," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 130(2), pages 143-168.
    6. Barbara Jancewicz & Stefan Markowski, 2019. "Wealth formation by economic agents and their international mobility: towards an eclectic migration decision-support framework," Studia z Polityki Publicznej / Public Policy Studies, Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 6(4), pages 1-28.
    7. Sergio Vergalli, 2006. "Dynamics in Immigration Community," Working Papers ubs0613, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    8. Mitze, Timo & Reinkowski, Janina, 2010. "Testing the Validity of the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Estimation Results for German Spatial Planning Regions," MPRA Paper 23616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kubis, Alexander & Schneider, Lutz, 2007. "Determinants of Female Migration – The Case of German NUTS 3 Regions," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2007, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Ekaterina Sprenger, 2013. "The Determinants of International Migration in the European Union: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 325, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    11. Klaus Nowotny, 2014. "Cross-border commuting and migration intentions: the roles of risk aversion and time preference," Contemporary Economics, Vizja University, vol. 8(2), June.
    12. Ather Maqsood Ahmed & Ismail Sirageldin, 1993. "Socio-economic Determinants of Labour Mobility in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 139-157.
    13. David P. Lindstrom & Silvia E. Giorguli-Saucedo, 2007. "The interrelationship of fertility, family maintenance and Mexico-U.S. Migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(28), pages 821-858.
    14. Timo Mitze, 2012. "Testing the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Results for German Regions," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Empirical Modelling in Regional Science, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 53-82, Springer.
    15. Tineke Fokkema & Eralba Cela & Elena Ambrosetti, 2013. "Giving from the Heart or from the Ego? Motives behind Remittances of the Second Generation in Europe," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 539-572, September.
    16. Stark, Oded, 2021. "Reexamining the influence of conditional cash transfers on migration from a gendered lens: Comment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 379-381.
    17. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Tobias D. Ketterer, 2012. "Do Local Amenities Affect The Appeal Of Regions In Europe For Migrants?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 535-561, October.
    18. Pekkala, Sari, 2002. "Regional growth centres - the most attractive location in Finland?," ERSA conference papers ersa02p087, European Regional Science Association.
    19. David K. Foot & William J. Milne, 1989. "Multiregional Estimation of Gross Internal Migration Flows," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 12(1), pages 29-43, April.
    20. Jean Philippe Décieux & Alexandra Mergener, 2021. "German Labor Emigration in Times of Technological Change: Occupational Characteristics and Geographical Patterns," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0284390. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.