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Can public transfers reduce Mexican migration? A study based on randomized experimental data

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  • Stecklov, Guy
  • Winters, Paul
  • Stampini, Marco
  • Davis, Benjamin

Abstract

Prior research on Mexican migration has shown that social networks and economic incentives play an important role in determining migration outcomes. This study utilizes experimental data on PROGRESA, Mexico's primary poverty reduction program, to evaluate the effects of public cash transfers on migration. Our study complements a growing body of literature aimed at overcoming longstanding hurdles towards the establishment of causal validity in empirical studies of migration. We find that public cash transfers reduce US migration but have little effect on domestic migration. Furthermore, we find that the provision of cash transfers appears to reduce migration partly by reducing the relative deprivation levels of poor households. Finally, we find that the effect of public cash transfers on US migration depend on the size of existing US migration networks. Surprisingly, we see that transfers have larger (more negative) effects on US migration in communities with large existing networks. The results suggest that public transfers may be helpful in managing rural out-migration, particularly to the US. Interestingly, such programs may be most effective if they are targeted towards communities with strong existing migration patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Stecklov, Guy & Winters, Paul & Stampini, Marco & Davis, Benjamin, "undated". "Can public transfers reduce Mexican migration? A study based on randomized experimental data," ESA Working Papers 289083, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:faoaes:289083
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.289083
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    Cited by:

    1. Angelucci, Manuela, 2004. "Aid and Migration: An Analysis of the Impact of Progresa on the Timing and Size of Labour Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 1187, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Mora Rivera, José Jorge. & Arellano-González, Jesús., 2012. "Migration and Remittances Effects on Consumption of the Poorest : the Mexican Case," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(14), pages 121-163, primer se.
    3. Oliver, Azuara, 2009. "Does Poverty Alleviation Increase Migration? Evidence from Mexico," MPRA Paper 17599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Zezza, Alberto & Carletto, Calogero & Davis, Benjamin, "undated". "Moving away from poverty: A spatial analysis of poverty and migration in Albania," ESA Working Papers 289076, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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