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Does poverty alleviation increase migration? evidence from Mexico

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  • Oliver, Azuara

Abstract

What is the long term effect of conditional cash transfers (CCT) on labor and migration decisions? There is scientific evidence that support short run positive effects of CCT on the levels of nutrition, health and schooling. However, there is little evidence on their long term effects on labor and migration decisions. The experimental data is limited for this purpose. I examine the short and long term effects of Progresa-Oportunidades on migration using a regression discontinuity design. The paper identifies the effects of the program among villages with poverty levels close to the cutoff point of the original eligibility criteria. The estimates show that the program caused a drop in the population size and changed the gender composition of Mexican rural villages between 1997 and 2005. Migration of fully covered village accounts for a reduction of 10 percentage points during the period. The reduction of males is significantly higher than for females, a clear sign of its effect on migration decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver, Azuara, 2009. "Does poverty alleviation increase migration? evidence from Mexico," MPRA Paper 35076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35076
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    Cited by:

    1. Gustavo J. Bobonis & Roberto Castro & Juan S. Morales, 2015. "Conditional Cash Transfers for Women and Spousal Violence: Evidence of the Long-Term Relationship from the Oportunidades Program in Rural Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 91600, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Mora Rivera, José Jorge. & Arellano-González, Jesús., 2012. "Migration and Remittances Effects on Consumption of the Poorest : the Mexican Case," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(14), pages 121-163, primer se.
    3. Michael A. Clemens, 2014. "Does development reduce migration?," Chapters,in: International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 6, pages 152-185 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Naila Kabeer & Hugh Waddington, 2015. "Economic impacts of conditional cash transfer programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 290-303, September.
    5. Kabeer, Naila & Waddington, Hugh, 2015. "Economic impacts of conditional cash transfer programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63905, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Marcos E. Domínguez Viera, 2011. "Does the Impact of Oportunidades Program Increases in Highly Competitive Regions?," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 79-111, November.
    7. Barrientos, Armando & Byrne, Jasmina & Peña, Paola & Villa, Juan Miguel, 2014. "Social transfers and child protection in the South," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(P2), pages 105-112.
    8. Gentilini,Ugo, 2015. "Entering the city : emerging evidence and practices with safety nets in urban areas," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 98253, The World Bank.
    9. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.
    10. Gustavo J. Bobonis & Roberto Castro & Juan S. Morales, 2015. "Conditional Cash Transfers for Women and Spousal Violence: Evidence of the Long-Term Relationship from the Oportunidades Program in Rural Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7267, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Armando Barrientos & Jasmina Byrne & Juan Miguel Villa & Paola Peña, 2013. "Social Transfers and Child Protection," Papers inwopa691, Innocenti Working Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Progresa; Oportunidades; Mexico; CCT; Migration;

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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