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Does Poverty Alleviation Increase Migration? Evidence from Mexico

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  • Oliver, Azuara

Abstract

What is the long term effect of cash transfers (CT) on rural migration? CT programs have demonstrated to increase human capital investments of poor families by increasing nutrition, health and schooling levels. How- ever, there is little evidence on the long term effects of CT programs particularly on migration decisions. Progresa-Oportunidades, the pioneer Mexican CT program that started in 1997, would give some evidence for this open question. I examine the sudden drop in the population size and gender composition of Mexican rural villages where this program was implemented between 1998 and 2005. I use a regression discontinuity design to identify the effects of the program on villages located on the margin of the poverty distribution and close to the cutoff point of the eligibility criteria. The average population in a fully covered village decreased by 70 people in 2005 compared to 1995 (almost 10 percent of the average population of 1995). Sixty five percent of this reduction corresponds to adults who left their villages and forty percent of this reduction can be attributed to Progresa-Oportunidades. The reduction of adult population of males is 6 times higher than for females, a clear sign of a significant increase in the migration patterns of this population.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver, Azuara, 2009. "Does Poverty Alleviation Increase Migration? Evidence from Mexico," MPRA Paper 17599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:17599
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    Cited by:

    1. Gustavo J. Bobonis & Roberto Castro & Juan S. Morales, 2015. "Conditional Cash Transfers for Women and Spousal Violence: Evidence of the Long-Term Relationship from the Oportunidades Program in Rural Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 91600, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Mora Rivera, José Jorge. & Arellano-González, Jesús., 2012. "Migration and Remittances Effects on Consumption of the Poorest : the Mexican Case," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(14), pages 121-163, primer se.
    3. Michael A. Clemens, 2014. "Does development reduce migration?," Chapters,in: International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 6, pages 152-185 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Naila Kabeer & Hugh Waddington, 2015. "Economic impacts of conditional cash transfer programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 290-303, September.
    5. Kabeer, Naila & Waddington, Hugh, 2015. "Economic impacts of conditional cash transfer programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63905, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Marcos E. Domínguez Viera, 2011. "Does the Impact of Oportunidades Program Increases in Highly Competitive Regions?," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 79-111, November.
    7. Barrientos, Armando & Byrne, Jasmina & Peña, Paola & Villa, Juan Miguel, 2014. "Social transfers and child protection in the South," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(P2), pages 105-112.
    8. Gentilini,Ugo, 2015. "Entering the city : emerging evidence and practices with safety nets in urban areas," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 98253, The World Bank.
    9. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.
    10. Gustavo J. Bobonis & Roberto Castro & Juan S. Morales, 2015. "Conditional Cash Transfers for Women and Spousal Violence: Evidence of the Long-Term Relationship from the Oportunidades Program in Rural Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7267, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Armando Barrientos & Jasmina Byrne & Juan Miguel Villa & Paola Peña, 2013. "Social Transfers and Child Protection," Papers inwopa691, Innocenti Working Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Progresa; Oportunidades; Mexico; CCT; Migration;

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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