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Aid and Migration: An Analysis of the Impact of Progresa on the Timing and Size of Labour Migration

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  • Angelucci, Manuela

    () (University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

This paper models the short and medium-run impact of aid on migration, considering alternatively the effect of unconditional and conditional cash transfers to financially constrained households. Data from the evaluation of a Mexican development program, Progresa, are used to estimate the effect of the potential grant size on migration. The empirical analysis is consistent with model prediction. It shows that the program is associated with an increase in international migration, which is also a positive function of size of potential transfer. The grant may loosen financial constraints. At the same time, fine-tuned conditional grants targeting prospective migrants (in the form of secondary school subsidies) reduce the short-term migration probability. As regards medium-term migration, secondary school beneficiaries are not more likely to migrate than the control group after they complete the subsidised education cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelucci, Manuela, 2004. "Aid and Migration: An Analysis of the Impact of Progresa on the Timing and Size of Labour Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 1187, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1187
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schultz, T. Paul, 2001. "School subsidies for the poor," FCND briefs 102, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Stark, Oded & Taylor, J Edward, 1991. "Migration Incentives, Migration Types: The Role of Relative Deprivation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1163-1178, September.
    3. Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Katz, Eliakim & Stark, Oded, 1986. "Labor Migration and Risk Aversion in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(1), pages 134-149, January.
    5. Guy Stecklov & Paul Winters & Marco Stampini & Benjamin Davis, 2003. "Can Public Transfers Reduce Mexican Migration? A study based on randomized experimental data," Working Papers 03-16, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    6. Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1993. "Trade, aid and migrations: Some basic policy issues," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 435-442, April.
    7. Albarran, Pedro & Attanasio, Orazio P., 2002. "Do Public Transfers Crowd Out Private Transfers? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Mexico," WIDER Working Paper Series 006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kabeer, Naila & Waddington, Hugh, 2015. "Economic impacts of conditional cash transfer programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63905, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2012. "Dış ticaret, ekonomik yardım, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve göçmen dövizleri Türkiye'den olan göçü frenleyebilir mi?," Migration Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 9(4), pages 311-327, December.
    3. Naila Kabeer & Hugh Waddington, 2015. "Economic impacts of conditional cash transfer programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 290-303, September.
    4. Guy Stecklov & Paul Winters & Marco Stampini & Benjamin Davis, 2005. "Do conditional cash transfers influence migration? A study using experimental data from the Mexican progresa program," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(4), pages 769-790, November.
    5. Antwi, James & Phillips, David C., 2013. "Wages and health worker retention: Evidence from public sector wage reforms in Ghana," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 101-115.
    6. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2010. "Can trade, aid, foreign direct investments and remittances curb migration from Turkey?," Migration Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 7(2), pages 144-158, October.
    7. Djajić, Slobodan & Vinogradova, Alexandra, 2014. "Liquidity-constrained migrants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 210-224.
    8. Gentilini,Ugo, 2015. "Entering the city : emerging evidence and practices with safety nets in urban areas," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 98253, The World Bank.
    9. Djajic, Slobodan & Kirdar, Murat G. & Vinogradova, Alexandra, 2016. "Source-country earnings and emigration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 46-67.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; aid; Progresa; Mexico;

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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