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Aid and Migration: An Analysis of the Impact of Progresa on the Timing and Size of Labour Migration

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  • Angelucci, Manuela

    (University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

This paper models the short and medium-run impact of aid on migration, considering alternatively the effect of unconditional and conditional cash transfers to financially constrained households. Data from the evaluation of a Mexican development program, Progresa, are used to estimate the effect of the potential grant size on migration. The empirical analysis is consistent with model prediction. It shows that the program is associated with an increase in international migration, which is also a positive function of size of potential transfer. The grant may loosen financial constraints. At the same time, fine-tuned conditional grants targeting prospective migrants (in the form of secondary school subsidies) reduce the short-term migration probability. As regards medium-term migration, secondary school beneficiaries are not more likely to migrate than the control group after they complete the subsidised education cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelucci, Manuela, 2004. "Aid and Migration: An Analysis of the Impact of Progresa on the Timing and Size of Labour Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 1187, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1187
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2012. "Dış ticaret, ekonomik yardım, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve göçmen dövizleri Türkiye'den olan göçü frenleyebilir mi?," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 9(4), pages 311-327, December.
    2. Naila Kabeer & Hugh Waddington, 2015. "Economic impacts of conditional cash transfer programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 290-303, September.
    3. Antwi, James & Phillips, David C., 2013. "Wages and health worker retention: Evidence from public sector wage reforms in Ghana," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 101-115.
    4. Kabeer, Naila & Waddington, Hugh, 2015. "Economic impacts of conditional cash transfer programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63905, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Slobodan Djajić, 2014. "Temporary Migration and the Flow of Savings to the Source Country," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 162-176, February.
    6. Guy Stecklov & Paul Winters & Marco Stampini & Benjamin Davis, 2005. "Do conditional cash transfers influence migration? A study using experimental data from the Mexican progresa program," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(4), pages 769-790, November.
    7. Djajić, Slobodan & Vinogradova, Alexandra, 2014. "Liquidity-constrained migrants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 210-224.
    8. Christopher R. Parsons & L. Alan Winters, 2014. "International migration, trade and aid: a survey," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 4, pages 65-112, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Djajic, Slobodan & Kirdar, Murat G. & Vinogradova, Alexandra, 2016. "Source-country earnings and emigration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 46-67.
    10. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2010. "Can trade, aid, foreign direct investments and remittances curb migration from Turkey?," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 7(2), pages 144-158, October.
    11. Gentilini,Ugo, 2015. "Entering the city : emerging evidence and practices with safety nets in urban areas," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 98253, The World Bank.
    12. Ana P. Canedo, 2023. "The Unintended Effects of Social Pensions on Migration: Evidence from Rural Mexico," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(1), pages 1-25, February.
    13. Aurore Gary & Audrey-Rose Menard, 2015. "Aid, Trade and Migration : How are OECD countries policies connected in times of crisis?," Working Papers of BETA 2015-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    14. Ademmer, Esther & Akgüç, Mehtap & Barslund, Mikkel & Di Bartolomeo, Anna & Benček, David & Groll, Dominik & Hoxhaj, Rezart & Lanati, Mauro & Laurentsyeva, Nadzeya & Lücke, Matthias & Ludolph, Lars & R, 2017. "2017 MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe. Sharing responsibility for refugees and expanding legal immigration," MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe, Mercator Dialogue on Asylum and Migration (MEDAM), number 182239.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; aid; Progresa; Mexico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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