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Migration Dynamics

  • Michele Moretto

    ()

    (Universit… di Padova)

  • Sergio Vergalli

    ()

    (Universit… di Brescia)

This paper look at why most migration flows include observable jumps, a phenomenon that is in line with migration irreversibility. We have presented a real option model where the migration choice depends on both the wage differential between the host country and the country of origin, and on the probability of full integration into the host country. The optimal migration decision of an individual consists of waiting to migrate in a (coordinated) mass of individuals. The size of the migration flow depends on the behavioural characteristics of the ethnic groups: the more "sociable" they are, the larger the wave and the lower the wage differential required. The second part of the paper is devoted to calibrating the model and simulating migration flows into Italy over the last decade. The calibration can replicate the migration jumps in the short term. In particular, the calibrated model is able to project the induced labour demand elasticity level of the host country and the behavioural rationale of the migrants.

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File URL: http://economia.unipd.it/sites/decon.unipd.it/files/20070053.pdf
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Paper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno" in its series "Marco Fanno" Working Papers with number 0053.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0053
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  20. Moretto, Michele, 2000. "Irreversible investment with uncertainty and strategic behavior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 589-617, December.
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  24. Ira N. Gang & Thomas Bauer & Gil S. Epstein, 2002. "Herd Effects or Migration Networks? The Location Choice of Mexican Immigrants in the U.S," Departmental Working Papers 200216, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  25. Corneo, Giacomo & Jeanne, Olivier, 1999. "Segmented communication and fashionable behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 371-385, July.
  26. Dani Rodrik, 1989. "Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November.
  28. Langley, Paul C, 1974. "The Spatial Allocation of Migrants in England and Wales: 1961-66," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 21(3), pages 259-77, November.
  29. Jackman, Richard & Savouri, Savvas, 1992. "Regional Migration in Britain: An Analysis of Gross Flows Using NHS Central Register Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1433-50, November.
  30. Paul Winters & Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2001. "Family and Community Networks in Mexico-U.S. Migration," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(1), pages 159-184.
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