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Migration Dynamics

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Listed:
  • Michele Moretto

    () (Universit… di Padova)

  • Sergio Vergalli

    () (Universit… di Brescia)

Abstract

This paper look at why most migration flows include observable jumps, a phenomenon that is in line with migration irreversibility. We have presented a real option model where the migration choice depends on both the wage differential between the host country and the country of origin, and on the probability of full integration into the host country. The optimal migration decision of an individual consists of waiting to migrate in a (coordinated) mass of individuals. The size of the migration flow depends on the behavioural characteristics of the ethnic groups: the more "sociable" they are, the larger the wave and the lower the wage differential required. The second part of the paper is devoted to calibrating the model and simulating migration flows into Italy over the last decade. The calibration can replicate the migration jumps in the short term. In particular, the calibrated model is able to project the induced labour demand elasticity level of the host country and the behavioural rationale of the migrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2007. "Migration Dynamics," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0053, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  • Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Vergalli, 2006. "Dynamics in Immigration Community," Working Papers ubs0613, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    2. Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2008. "Managing Migration through Quotas: an Option-theory Perspective," Working Papers 2008.51, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. M. Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2008. "Migration dynamics," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 93(3), pages 223-265, April.
    4. Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2010. "Managing Migration Through Conflicting Policies: An Option-Theory Perspective," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(s1), pages 318-342, July.
    5. José Romero, 2013. "What circumstances lead a government to promote brain drain?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 108(2), pages 173-202, March.
    6. Christian Schmidt, 2011. "Commuting and Migration Decisions under Cost Uncertainty," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1481, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Deshingkar, Priya & Akter, Shaheen, 2009. "Migration and Human Development in India," MPRA Paper 19193, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sergio Vergalli, 2011. "Entry and Exit Strategies in Migration Dynamics," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 362-389, December.
    9. repec:hur:ijaraf:v:7:y:2017:i:3:p:6-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Elsner, Benjamin & Narciso, Gaia & Thijssen, Jacco J. J., 2013. "Migrant Networks and the Spread of Misinformation," IZA Discussion Papers 7863, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. Theodore Palivos & Chong Yip, 2010. "Illegal immigration in a heterogeneous labor market," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 101(1), pages 21-47, September.
    12. Sergio Vergalli, 2008. "The Role of Community in Migration Dynamics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(3), pages 547-567, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Real Option; Labour Market; Network Effect;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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