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Remittances, savings and return migration under uncertainty

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  • Matthieu Delpierre

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  • Bertrand Verheyden

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Abstract

Recent empirical evidence links migrant remittances, savings and return migration, and stresses the inaccuracy of return migration plans. This paper presents a model of endogenous remittances, savings and return decisions under uncertainty. In our framework, migrants make remittance and saving decisions at an early stage of migration, when their long term economic performance in the host country is still uncertain. Over time, information about professional prospects is acquired, and conditionally on past decisions, migrants adjust their return plans. We show that when migrants expect large gains from migration and face relatively low wage risks in the host country, they tend to remit less, save more and are less likely to return migrate. These results are in line with recent empirical evidence and provide a rationale for the support by relatives in the sending country of low-skill, illegal migration. JEL codes D13; D80; JE Copyright Delpierre and Verheyden; licensee Springer. 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Delpierre & Bertrand Verheyden, 2014. "Remittances, savings and return migration under uncertainty," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-43, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:izamig:v:3:y:2014:i:1:p:1-43:10.1186/s40176-014-0022-7
    DOI: 10.1186/s40176-014-0022-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bettin, Giulia & Lucchetti, Riccardo & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2012. "Endogeneity and sample selection in a model for remittances," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 370-384.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chabé-Ferret, Bastien & Machado, Joël & Wahba, Jackline, 2018. "Remigration intentions and migrants' behavior," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 56-72.
    2. Matthieu Delpierre & Arnaud Dupuy & Michel Tenikue & Bertrand Verheyden, 2017. "The education motive for migrant remittances - Theory and evidence from India," CREA Discussion Paper Series 17-13, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Remittances; Savings; Risk; Return migration;

    JEL classification:

    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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