IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/izamig/v3y2014i1p1-4310.1186-s40176-014-0022-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Remittances, savings and return migration under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Matthieu Delpierre
  • Bertrand Verheyden

Abstract

Recent empirical evidence links migrant remittances, savings and return migration, and stresses the inaccuracy of return migration plans. This paper presents a model of endogenous remittances, savings and return decisions under uncertainty. In our framework, migrants make remittance and saving decisions at an early stage of migration, when their long term economic performance in the host country is still uncertain. Over time, information about professional prospects is acquired, and conditionally on past decisions, migrants adjust their return plans. We show that when migrants expect large gains from migration and face relatively low wage risks in the host country, they tend to remit less, save more and are less likely to return migrate. These results are in line with recent empirical evidence and provide a rationale for the support by relatives in the sending country of low-skill, illegal migration. JEL codes D13; D80; JE Copyright Delpierre and Verheyden; licensee Springer. 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Delpierre & Bertrand Verheyden, 2014. "Remittances, savings and return migration under uncertainty," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-43, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:izamig:v:3:y:2014:i:1:p:1-43:10.1186/s40176-014-0022-7
    DOI: 10.1186/s40176-014-0022-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1186/s40176-014-0022-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40176-014-0022-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adams Jr., Richard H. & Cuecuecha, Alfredo, 2010. "Remittances, Household Expenditure and Investment in Guatemala," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 1626-1641, November.
    2. Bettin, Giulia & Lucchetti, Riccardo & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2012. "Endogeneity and sample selection in a model for remittances," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 370-384.
    3. Dustmann, Christian & Fadlon, Itzhak & Weiss, Yoram, 2011. "Return migration, human capital accumulation and the brain drain," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 58-67, May.
    4. Hill, John K., 1987. "Immigrant decisions concerning duration of stay and migratory frequency," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 221-234, February.
    5. Oded Stark & Christian Helmenstein & Yury Yegorov, 1997. "Migrants' Savings, Purchasing Power Parity, and the Optimal Duration of Migration," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 4(3), pages 307-324, July.
    6. Stark, Oded & Levhari, David, 1982. "On Migration and Risk in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 191-196, October.
    7. M. Piracha & Y. Zhu, 2012. "Precautionary savings by natives and immigrants in Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2767-2776, July.
    8. Oded Stark & Ita Falk, 2000. "Transfers, Empathy Formation, and Reverse Transfers," International Economic Association Series, in: L.-A. Gérard-Varet & S.-C. Kolm & J. Mercier Ythier (ed.), The Economics of Reciprocity, Giving and Altruism, chapter 8, pages 174-181, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Alcaraz, Carlo & Chiquiar, Daniel & Salcedo, Alejandrina, 2012. "Remittances, schooling, and child labor in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 156-165.
    10. Djajic, Slobodan & Milbourne, Ross, 1988. "A general equilibrium model of guest-worker migration : The source-country perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 335-351, November.
    11. Christian Dustmann & Josep Mestres, 2010. "Savings, Asset Holdings, and Temporary Migration," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1005, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    12. de la Briere, Benedicte & Sadoulet, Elisabeth & de Janvry, Alain & Lambert, Sylvie, 2002. "The roles of destination, gender, and household composition in explaining remittances: an analysis for the Dominican Sierra," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 309-328, August.
    13. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, June.
    14. William Collier & Matloob Piracha & Teresa Randazzo, 2018. "Remittances and return migration," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 174-202, February.
    15. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002. "The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April.
    16. Calero, Carla & Bedi, Arjun S. & Sparrow, Robert, 2009. "Remittances, Liquidity Constraints and Human Capital Investments in Ecuador," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1143-1154, June.
    17. Dustmann, Christian, 2003. "Return migration, wage differentials, and the optimal migration duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 353-369, April.
    18. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Demonsant, Jean-Luc, 2012. "Education and migration choices in hierarchical societies: The case of Matam, Senegal," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 875-889.
    19. Mariapia MENDOLA, 2005. "Migration and technological change in rural households: complements or substitutes?," Departmental Working Papers 2005-15, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    20. Govert E. Bijwaard & Christian Schluter & Jackline Wahba, 2014. "The Impact of Labor Market Dynamics on the Return Migration of Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(3), pages 483-494, July.
    21. Poirine, Bernard, 1997. "A theory of remittances as an implicit family loan arrangement," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 589-611, January.
    22. Mathias Sinning, 2011. "Determinants of savings and remittances: empirical evidence from immigrants to Germany," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 45-67, March.
    23. Alejandra Cox Edwards & Manuelita Ureta, 2003. "International Migration, Remittances, and Schooling: Evidence from El Salvador," NBER Working Papers 9766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Raymundo Campos-Vazquez & Jaime Lara, 2012. "Self-selection patterns among return migrants: Mexico 1990-2010," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, December.
    25. Osili, Una Okonkwo, 2004. "Migrants and Housing Investments: Theory and Evidence from Nigeria," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(4), pages 821-849, July.
    26. Adams, Richard H, Jr, 1998. "Remittances, Investment, and Rural Asset Accumulation in Pakistan," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(1), pages 155-173, October.
    27. Dean Yang, 2006. "Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 715-735, November.
    28. Rapoport, Hillel & Docquier, Frederic, 2006. "The Economics of Migrants' Remittances," Handbook on the Economics of Giving, Reciprocity and Altruism, in: S. Kolm & Jean Mercier Ythier (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Giving, Altruism and Reciprocity, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 1135-1198, Elsevier.
    29. Edwards, Alejandra Cox & Ureta, Manuelita, 2003. "International migration, remittances, and schooling: evidence from El Salvador," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 429-461, December.
    30. Selden, Larry, 1978. "A New Representation of Preferences over "Certain A Uncertain" Consumption Pairs: The "Ordinal Certainty Equivalent" Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1045-1060, September.
    31. Oded Stark, 2009. "Reasons for Remitting," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 10(3), pages 147-158, July.
    32. Hoddinott, John, 1994. "A Model of Migration and Remittances Applied to Western Kenya," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 459-476, July.
    33. Cox, Donald, 1987. "Motives for Private Income Transfers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 508-546, June.
    34. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 2021. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration Of The Foreign-Born," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 5, pages 93-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    35. Dustmann, Christian, 1997. "Return migration, uncertainty and precautionary savings," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 295-316, April.
    36. HwaJung Choi, 2007. "Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(2), pages 219-248, May.
    37. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10842 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Flore Gubert, 2002. "Do Migrants Insure Those who Stay Behind? Evidence from the Kayes Area (Western Mali)," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 267-287.
    39. Dustmann, Christian & Mestres, Josep, 2010. "Remittances and temporary migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 62-70, May.
    40. Lucas, Robert E B & Stark, Oded, 1985. "Motivations to Remit: Evidence from Botswana," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 901-918, October.
    41. Juan M. Gallego & Mariapia Mendola, 2013. "Labour Migration and Social Networks Participation in Southern Mozambique," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(320), pages 721-759, October.
    42. Christian Gollier, 2004. "The Economics of Risk and Time," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572249.
    43. Dean Yang, 2006. "Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence From Philippine Migrants%u2019 Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
    45. Jørgen Carling, 2008. "The determinants of migrant remittances," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 582-599, Autumn.
    46. Gertrud Schrieder & Beatrice Knerr, 2000. "Labour Migration as a Social Security Mechanism for Smallholder Households in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Cameroon," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 223-236.
    47. Mendola, Mariapia, 2008. "Migration and technological change in rural households: Complements or substitutes?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 150-175, February.
    48. Govert Bijwaard, 2010. "Immigrant migration dynamics model for The Netherlands," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1213-1247, September.
    49. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo, 2006. "Remittances as insurance: evidence from Mexican immigrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 227-254, June.
    50. Osili, Una Okonkwo, 2007. "Remittances and savings from international migration: Theory and evidence using a matched sample," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 446-465, July.
    51. Alice Mesnard, 2004. "Temporary migration and capital market imperfections," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 242-262, April.
    52. Tunali, Insan, 2000. "Rationality of Migration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(4), pages 893-920, November.
    53. Yang, Dean, 2009. "International Migration and Human Development," MPRA Paper 19212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. MAWUSI, Charles, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Remittances Flow: Heterogeneity Matters," MPRA Paper 103097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chabé-Ferret, Bastien & Machado, Joël & Wahba, Jackline, 2018. "Remigration intentions and migrants' behavior," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 56-72.
    3. Aaron Levi Garavito-Acosta & Maria Mercedes Collazos-Gaitan & Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano & Enrique Montes-Uribe, 2019. "Migración internacional y determinantes de las remesas de trabajadores en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1066, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Matthieu Delpierre & Arnaud Dupuy & Michel Tenikue & Bertrand Verheyden, 2017. "The education motive for migrant remittances - Theory and evidence from India," DEM Discussion Paper Series 17-13, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    5. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Ezgi Kaya, 2020. "Not just a work permit: EU citizenship and the consumption behaviour of documented and undocumented immigrants," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1552-1598, November.
    6. Aurelian-Petruş PLOPEANU & Daniel HOMOCIANU, 2020. "Why would Romanian migrants from Western Europe return to their country of origin? Abstract: After conducting a survey among Romanian individuals left abroad, we analyze the particular influences rela," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 211-235, June.
    7. Kaufmann, Marc & Machado, Joël & Verheyden, Bertrand, 2021. "Why Do Migrants Stay Unexpectedly? Misperceptions and Implications for Integration," IZA Discussion Papers 14155, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Charles Mawusi, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Remittances to Developing Economies: A System GMM Approach," Working Papers hal-03147813, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    2. Hagen-Zanker, Jessica, 2010. "Modest expectations: Causes and effects of migration on migrant households in source countries," MPRA Paper 29507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Matthieu Delpierre, 2012. "The impact of liquidity constraints and imperfect commitment on migration decisions of offspring of rural households," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 153-170, March.
    4. Giulia Bettin & Riccardo Lucchetti, 2016. "Steady streams and sudden bursts: persistence patterns in remittance decisions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 263-292, January.
    5. Dean Yang, 2009. "International Migration and Human Development," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2009-29, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), revised Jul 2009.
    6. Giulia Bettin & Riccardo Lucchetti & Claudia Pigini, 2016. "State dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in a double hurdle model for remittances: evidence from immigrants to Germany," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 127, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    7. Matthieu Delpierre & Arnaud Dupuy & Michel Tenikue & Bertrand Verheyden, 2017. "The education motive for migrant remittances - Theory and evidence from India," DEM Discussion Paper Series 17-13, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    8. Okayo Alphonsine COULIBALY, 2016. "Les Motivations Microéconomiques Des Transferts De Fonds Au Burkina Faso : La Culture Est-Elle Déterminante ?," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 43, pages 187-208.
    9. Joseph B. Ajefu & Joseph O. Ogebe, 2021. "The effects of international remittances on expenditure patterns of the left‐behind households in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 405-429, February.
    10. Katarzyna Budnik, 2011. "Temporary migration in theories of international mobility of labour," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 42(6), pages 7-48.
    11. Meyer, Wiebke, 2012. "Motives for remitting from Germany to Kosovo," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 69, number 69, September.
    12. Rapoport, Hillel & Docquier, Frederic, 2006. "The Economics of Migrants' Remittances," Handbook on the Economics of Giving, Reciprocity and Altruism, in: S. Kolm & Jean Mercier Ythier (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Giving, Altruism and Reciprocity, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 1135-1198, Elsevier.
    13. Garcia, Pablo M & Rodriguez-Montemayor, Eduardo, 2010. "A primer of international migration: The Latin American experience and a proposal for a research agenda," MPRA Paper 24147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Eduardo Rodríguez-Montemayor & Pablo M. García, 2009. "A Primer of International Migration: The Latin American Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9327, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Jackline Wahba, 2014. "Return migration and economic development," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 12, pages 327-349, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Kaczmarczyk, Pawel, 2013. "Money for Nothing? Ukrainian Immigrants in Poland and their Remitting Behaviors," IZA Discussion Papers 7666, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Akay, Alpaslan & Brausmann, Alexandra & Djajic, Slobodan & Kirdar, Murat G., 2018. "Purchasing-Power-Parity and the Saving Behavior of Temporary Migrants," IZA Discussion Papers 11679, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Sílvio Rendon & Alfredo Cuecuecha, 2010. "International job search: Mexicans in and out of the US," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 53-82, March.
    19. Bettin, Giulia & Lucchetti, Riccardo & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2012. "Endogeneity and sample selection in a model for remittances," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 370-384.
    20. Giulia Bettin & Riccardo Lucchetti & Alberto Zazzaro, 2009. "Income, consumption and remittances: evidence from immigrants to Australia," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 34, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Remittances; Savings; Risk; Return migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:izamig:v:3:y:2014:i:1:p:1-43:10.1186/s40176-014-0022-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.