Remittances, savings and return migration under uncertainty
Recent empirical evidence links migrant remittances and return migration, and stresses the impact of uncertainty on migrant decisions. Theoretical analyses of the motives for remittances generally neglect these features, and do not include alternative strategies such as savings, which potentially have very different implications for both migrants and origin countries. This paper presents a model of endogenous remittances, savings and return decisions under uncertainty. This setting, which applies to long-term international migration, addresses the following questions. Which migrant characteristics affect their remittance-saving portfolio decisions? How do these decisions interact with migration success and return plans? In our framework, migrants make remittance and saving decisions at an early stage of migration, when migration success and return options are uncertain. Over time, information about professional prospects is acquired, and conditionally on past decisions, migrants adjust their return plans. We show that migrants anticipating a large wage in the host country, or a relatively low risk of migration failure are less likely to remit and to return, and more likely to save. These results are in line with recent empirical evidence, such as the large share of non-remitting migrants, the fact that migrants facing higher risks are more likely to remit, and the potentially poor economic performance of returnees. Finally, we provide a rationale for the support by relatives in the sending country of low-skill, illegal migration.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 00352 / 58 58 55 - 1
Fax: 00352 / 58 58 55 - 700
Web page: http://www.liser.lu
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alcaraz, Carlo & Chiquiar, Daniel & Salcedo, Alejandrina, 2012.
"Remittances, schooling, and child labor in Mexico,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 156-165.
- Calero, C. & Bedi, A.S. & Sparrow, R.A., 2008.
"Remittances, liquidity constraints and human capital investments in Ecuador,"
ISS Working Papers - General Series
18735, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
- Calero, Carla & Bedi, Arjun S. & Sparrow, Robert, 2009. "Remittances, Liquidity Constraints and Human Capital Investments in Ecuador," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1143-1154, June.
- Calero, Carla & Bedi, Arjun S. & Sparrow, Robert, 2008. "Remittances, Liquidity Constraints and Human Capital Investments in Ecuador," IZA Discussion Papers 3358, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Bettin, Giulia & Lucchetti, Riccardo & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2012.
"Endogeneity and sample selection in a model for remittances,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 370-384.
- Giulia BETTIN & Riccardo LUCCHETTI & Alberto ZAZZARO, 2011. "Endogeneity and sample selection in a model for remittances," Working Papers 361, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Gertrud Schrieder & Beatrice Knerr, 2000. "Labour Migration as a Social Security Mechanism for Smallholder Households in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Cameroon," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 223-236.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:irs:cepswp:2014-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Library and Documentation)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.