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The economic impact of demographic structure in OECD countries

  • Yunus Aksoy

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

  • Tobias Grasl

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

  • Ron P Smith

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

We examine the impact of demographic structure, the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings, investment, hours, interest rates and inflation using a panel VAR estimated from data for 20 OECD economies, mainly for the period 1970-2007. This flexible dynamic structure with interactions among the main macroeconomic variables allows us to estimate long-run effects of demographic structure on the individual countries. Our estimates confirm the importance of these effects.

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File URL: http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ems/research/wp/2012/PDFs/BWPEF1212.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
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Paper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 1212.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1212
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  1. Cheolbeom Park, 2010. "How does changing age distribution impact stock prices? A nonparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 1155-1178, November/.
  2. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
  3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2011. "Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 16705, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Slacalek, Jiri, 2009. "What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Working Paper Series 1117, European Central Bank.
  6. Yan Bai & Jing Zhang, 2010. "Solving the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle With Financial Frictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 603-632, 03.
  7. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1997. "Pooled estimators vs. their heterogeneous counterparts in the context of dynamic demand for gasoline," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 303-327, April.
  8. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 3108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
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