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Demographic Dynamics and Long-Run Development: Insights for the Secular Stagnation Debate

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  • Cervellati, Matteo
  • Sunde, Uwe
  • Zimmermann, Klaus

Abstract

This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed. At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development. The evidence presented here suggests that long-run development dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity and the question of secular stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe & Zimmermann, Klaus, 2016. "Demographic Dynamics and Long-Run Development: Insights for the Secular Stagnation Debate," Discussion Papers 245158, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ubzefd:245158
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    Cited by:

    1. Edle von Gaessler, Anne & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2017. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," MERIT Working Papers 043, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    secular stagnation; long-term development; income growth; demographic transition; Labor and Human Capital; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C54; E10; J11; J 13; J18; N30; O10; O40;

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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