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Decomposing Comparative Development 1880-2020: A Quantitative Dynamic Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Cervellati
  • Gerrit Meyerheim
  • Uwe Sunde

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that a tractable heterogeneous agent endogenous growth model can quantitatively match the stylized empirical facts of long-run development trajectories of income, life expectancy, and fertility for 86 countries over the past 140 years. A decomposition of comparative development differences into contributions of country-specific "deep determinants'', accumulation forces during the historical development process, and balanced growth dynamics sheds new light on the mechanisms leading to country-specific differences in development and establishes a link between the largely disparate literatures on endogenous growth, comparative development, and growth accounting. Structural estimation results show that historical accumulation dynamics explain most of today's comparative development patterns. A quantification of the demographic dividend suggests implications for future growth dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2025. "Decomposing Comparative Development 1880-2020: A Quantitative Dynamic Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 12176, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12176
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
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    6. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    7. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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