IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_12176.html

Decomposing Comparative Development 1880-2020: A Quantitative Dynamic Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Cervellati
  • Gerrit Meyerheim
  • Uwe Sunde

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that a tractable heterogeneous agent endogenous growth model can quantitatively match the stylized empirical facts of long-run development trajectories of income, life expectancy, and fertility for 86 countries over the past 140 years. A decomposition of comparative development differences into contributions of country-specific "deep determinants'', accumulation forces during the historical development process, and balanced growth dynamics sheds new light on the mechanisms leading to country-specific differences in development and establishes a link between the largely disparate literatures on endogenous growth, comparative development, and growth accounting. Structural estimation results show that historical accumulation dynamics explain most of today's comparative development patterns. A quantification of the demographic dividend suggests implications for future growth dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2025. "Decomposing Comparative Development 1880-2020: A Quantitative Dynamic Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 12176, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12176
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12176.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrés Erosa & Tatyana Koreshkova & Diego Restuccia, 2010. "How Important Is Human Capital? A Quantitative Theory Assessment of World Income Inequality," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1421-1449.
    2. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2017. "Demographic dynamics and long-run development: insights for the secular stagnation debate," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 401-432, April.
    3. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477.
    4. Strulik, Holger & Weisdorf, Jacob, 2014. "How Child Costs And Survival Shaped The Industrial Revolution And The Demographic Transition," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 114-144, January.
    5. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2022. "The rural exodus and the rise of Europe," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 365-414, September.
    2. James Foreman-Peck & Peng Zhou, 2021. "Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 1073-1104, July.
    3. James Foreman-Peck & Peng Zhou, 2021. "Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 1073-1104, July.
    4. Thomas I. Renström & Luca Spataro, 2021. "Optimal taxation in an endogenous growth model with variable population and public expenditure," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(4), pages 639-659, August.
    5. Katharina Mühlhoff, 2022. "Darwin beats malthus: evolutionary anthropology, human capital and the demographic transition," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(3), pages 575-614, September.
    6. Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Life expectancy and education: evidence from the cardiovascular revolution," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 421-450, December.
    7. Madsen, Jakob B. & Robertson, Peter E. & Ye, Longfeng, 2019. "Malthus was right: Explaining a millennium of stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 51-68.
    8. Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: a unified growth perspective," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 173-224, June.
    9. Gori, Luca & Sodini, Mauro, 2020. "Endogenous labour supply, endogenous lifetime and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 238-259.
    10. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Jakob B. Madsen & Holger Strulik, 2021. "Physiological constraints and the transition to growth: implications for comparative development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 241-289, September.
    11. Matthias Beulmann & Holger Strulik, 2025. "The Fertility Transition and Directed Technical Change towards Green Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 58, October.
    12. Banda, Mutisunge Allan, 2024. "Population age structure as a determinant of long-run macroeconomic growth: demographic endogenous growth theory," MPRA Paper 122725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Johnston, Lauren A., 2020. "China’s Economic Demography Transition Strategy: A Population Weighted Approach to the Economy and Policy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 593, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    14. Ron W. Nielsen, 2015. "Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth," Papers 1509.06612, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    15. Kawalec Paweł, 2020. "The dynamics of theories of economic growth: An impact of Unified Growth Theory," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(2), pages 19-44, June.
    16. Vania Licio, 2023. "The Italian coal shortage: the price of import and distribution, 1861–1911," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(3), pages 501-532, September.
    17. Ron W Nielsen, 2016. "Mathematical analysis of historical income per capita distributions," Papers 1603.01685, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    18. Clark, Gregory & Cummins, Neil, 2016. "The Child Quality-Quantity Tradeoff, England, 1780-1880: A Fundamental Component of the Economic Theory of Growth is Missing," CEPR Discussion Papers 11232, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Daron Acemoglu & Matthew O. Jackson, 2017. "Social Norms and the Enforcement of Laws," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 245-295.
    20. Herrera-Almanza, Catalina & McCarthy, Aine Seitz, 2025. "Strategic Responses to Disparities in Spousal Desired Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Rural Tanzania," IZA Discussion Papers 18115, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.