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The Fertility Transition and Directed Technical Change towards Green Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Matthias Beulmann

    (University of Goettingen)

  • Holger Strulik

    (University of Goettingen)

Abstract

It is generally believed that population growth is associated with higher CO2 emissions. Empirically, however, the fertility rate is negatively associated with CO2 emissions while education and individual human capital are positively associated. In this paper, we set up an R&D-based model of economic growth and pollution with endogenous fertility and education that explains these stylized facts and reconciles them with the common wisdom. By refining the theory of directed technical change we explain why (i) lower birth rates within and across countries are associated with more human capital and therefore with higher income and more CO2 emissions in the 19th and 20th century and (ii) that directed technical change is a necessary but not sufficient condition for low fertility to ultimately have a positive impact on emissions, as a smaller but better educated workforce is able to transition to green growth earlier. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Beulmann & Holger Strulik, 2025. "The Fertility Transition and Directed Technical Change towards Green Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 58, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:24-122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101299
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    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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